Invasion Day 79 – Summary

The summary of the 79th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 13rd of May 2022 (Kyiv time).

Day summary:

Ukrainian troops are successfully advancing in the vicinity of Kharkiv and liberated a few more settlements.

Russian army has strengthened its presence in the border areas of Bryansk and Kursk Oblast amid fears of possible Ukrainian attacks across the border. Additional Russian artillery elements were deployed to the Bryansk Oblast as well.

Note regarding Right Sector units: I was recently approached by a representative of Right Sector, who expressed their wish to remove DUK (Ukrainian Volunteer Corps) marks from the daily reports. Unfortunately, all my proposed solutions were denied, and even through all my data come from the public sources, I was unable to change their minds. I decided to honor their request, and their marks have been removed from the daily maps for now.

Kharkiv Frontline

includes the area of Kharkiv and Chuhuiv

partly sunny | ~21 °C

Shelling: Pytomnyk, Rusky Tyshky, Petrivka, Ternova

The counteroffensive of Ukrainian forces continue in the area, and the enemy is forces to withdraw its units across the border as the result. Ukrainian troops recaptured Petrovske, Ternova and are advancing towards Vesele.


Siverskyi Donets

includes the area of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut

partly sunny | ~25 °C

Shelling: Nova Dmytrikva, Krasnopillya, Dolyna, Adamivka, Bohorodychne, vicinity of Rubizhne, Toshkivka, Orikhove, Zolote

Russian forces have advanced along the highway M-03 (Izium – Slovyansk) and attacked Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Bohorodychne. The assault was successfully repelled. Russian aviation targeted Ukrainian positions at Dolyna and Adamivka.

Fighting continues in the vicinity of Lyman and Oleksandrivka. Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian lines in the area of Orikhove, Zolote and Komyshuvakha, but without success.


South-Eastern Front

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

rain showers | ~24 °C

Donetsk Oblast

Shelling: Marinka, Avdiivka, Kamyanka

Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian positions at Novomykhailivka, Marinka, Avdiivka, Kamyanka and Novoselivka. Ukrainian troops managed to successfully repel all attacks in the mentioned areas.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Shelling: Orikhiv, Huliaipole

There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.


Azovstal

includes the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol

partly sunny | ~22 °C

Fighting continues on the edge of the Azovstal plant, as well as the almost nonstop shelling of the plant itself.


Kherson Frontline

includes the vicinity of Kherson and Mykolaiv

mostly sunny | ~26 °C

Mykolaiv Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Mykolaiv Oblast.

Kherson Oblast

Shelling: Oleksandrivka, Tavrijske, Kotlyareve

There was no change on the ground in Kherson Oblast.

Correction: Based on the recently released footage and statements, it was confirmed Russian army still controls Pravdyne, and most of the area between Blahodatne and Snihurivka.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of Russian Army, DPR and LPR (taken with a grain of salt)

Visit our Deployment map for updated interactive map of captured areas and Ukrainian units.

Make sure to follow us on Twitter & Telegram for the latest updates on Ukraine.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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kevin

Stalemate is my guess. The areas under occupation are historically Russian-leaning anyway, so Russia can just sit tight and play defense. Ukraine doesn’t have to worry about Russia advancing further without further mobilization.

If Ukraine starts with massive counterattack, then Russia has the justification for WWW2 full mobilization. Oil price will double and stock market will crash. Even US will not be happy at that point (treasury bond yield will spike), and will try to mediate a truce.

AZOG

Most commentators here seem to agree that Russia is running out of time and it needs a quick victory. This is not my impression at all, on the contrary it’s Ukraine (and the Collective West) who’d benefit more from the quick resolution of this conflict. Because you know, the winter is coming. Russia has fuel and food, not a problem at all for them. They won’t be necessarily happy but they’ll survive. The Europe, especially Germany (let alone the Ukraine) – I am not so sure to be honest. But it is quite clear that the conflict in Ukraine is not a Blitzkrieg anymore (it’s past – or soon will be – 100 days mark), so it’s a long war that will take months at least. I’d say it’s fair to classify this as a limited attrition war. This strategy means that whoever can last longer wins. This is not about who controls more land at any point (although it helps). All these statements like ‘successfully repelled’ and ‘successfully advancing’ are highly entertaining of course, but the purpose is to destroy (or degrade) the enemy force faster than your own forces are degraded. Russian forces are slowly advancing, using artillery and air support they degrade the AFU units and by gradually capturing the key points, they ensure even greater degradation of the Ukrainian army in the long run by encircling them in the cauldrons. And they are in no hurry at all. Popasnaya is a great example, it took months for the Russians to take it. And make no mistake, the town was literally turned into a fortress (lots of photos depicting concrete fortifications are available) and it’s a high ground, great place for your artillery. But now, when it’s taken, Russians can go to the North or they can go to the West, their choice. When they do, take a look at the map and see what happens.
If it was Manstein commanding the AFU armies he would have tried to outmaneuver the enemy with his armor divisions, but the Ukrainian forces are mostly static (and it’s not WW2 anymore, today we have recon drones, satellites so it’s hard to surprise the enemy relevant for both sides by the way). So their strategy is to dig in, stand and fight. It’s like the German Army in Poland and Germany in 1944. Festungs. Turn the city (preferably the city because it’s easier to defend) into a fortress, kick out the civilians or get them into cellars and be prepared to fight when surrounded for as long as you can. Moreover it will make a great PR picture for Ukraine. We will see more Mariupols especially in industrial cities.
The argument about the Western wonder weapons is valid. But it will take time and it will be a logistical nightmare. We’ll see.
So in the end it’s about who will last longer. Ukrainian fortresses or the Russians besieging them. Everything besides Donbass is secondary at this point (despite all the ‘successful repellings’). Might change in the future of course.

Timothy Hurley

“despite all the successful repellings.”Those are called LOSSES. They aren’t feints, they aren’t “part of the plan,” they are flat out LOSSES. I’ll go through them for you in case you forgot:
1) Kyiv-LOSS
2) Sumy-LOSS
3) Chernihiv-LOSS
4)Kharkiv-LOSS
5) 9 Generals-DEAD
6) Moskva-SUNK
Over 50% of RU tanks and APC’s are visually confirmed as destroyed. Any “rational” discussion of the war needs to be based on facts and not wishful thinking or RU fantasy Telegram posts.

Food for thought

Mate, look at the map. Do you see the red colour on approximately 20% of Ukraine? What is the value of 9 generals or a few thousand losses (these are Ukrainian data and obviously exaggerated like the minimal losses that Russians report) compared to occupying so far 1/5 of a country and slowly advancing? I agree with AZOG. I don’t known whether he is pro Russian or not but I think it is quite realistic approach.

AZOG

One can ‘successfully’ repel 50 attacks, but it takes only one ‘successful’ attack to lose the battle. And if the opposing side can live with that and still operate, it’ll lead to a strategic loss ultimately. As you – correctly – stated, the ‘truth’ and facts depend on which TG channels one is reading. I am reading and trying to analyze the info from both sides. Russians surely suffered losses, I never stated the opposite but if you subscribe to the view that the Russians are losing left and right and the Ukrainians are always ‘successful’ this isn’t something I’d agree with. I don’t know all the ‘facts’, I cannot verify them, every coffee machine today spreads propaganda (propaganda by omission in the best case, and ‘by commission’ in the worst). I can only speculate about the general trend where this is going.
And also I know that what’s important in attrition warfare – and this is what we are seeing in Ukraine – is who can fight longer, not who is flawless.

vachefolle

Ukr proved that they can retake occupied territory to Russia, so your logic is false.

wolfgang

the West (United states, Canada, UK, France ,Germany and other countries ) are fully committed to support Ukraine with weapons.
Russia can’t win this war as long as these countries sending weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine is getting anti- ship missiles, heavy artillery, tanks, ammunition, air defense…).
Where is Russia getting their weapons from to refill their equipment losses?
There is a huge difference: the ukrainian army is a western army. Their soldiers are well trained and are way better on the ground than the russian soldiers. Mission command on the Ukrainian side is one of the reasons why ukrainians are winning most of the battles.

AZOG

Russian and Ukrainian armies are much more similar than perhaps you think (perhaps more similar that they think themselves about each other). ‘Western trained army’ is like some mantra that supposedly makes the army invincible. Right, and South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc were just statistical anomalies.

Sven

Just one question, how much money do you think it goes on the career of a general? Their generals have a lot of experiencia, RU did not wasted time and was involved in every conflict possible.

How much time it’s needed to generate a new general? how much money it takes? how decades of experience will be replaced? imagine if any other army lost this numbers of it’s highest officers?!

Adding this number to the VDV losses, how Russia will replace experienced and highly trained resources? The answer is simple, it will not.

Looking at the map now does not say much, they were kilometers from the center o kiev, for weeks and achieved nothing but a retreat. Now they are unable to secure the supply lines around kharkiv, what’s next? 2 of the 3 most import logistical hubs are now in the range of the howitzers that were provided by the US. Next month will be critical to understand if Russia will make a push or if they will only consolidate the 1/5 of territory that you mentioned.

For the second largest army in the world, It’s a shame, loss after loss. some fights they win but the overall is not looking good for Russia, that’s my personal opinion.

Meha

What you are saying does not make sense. I am a participant in the war that lasted 4 years 30 years ago, the part where I was all 4 years was in a total environment, there were 250,000 inhabitants with women and children no one died of hunger and cold, we were absolutely without electricity and never we had no gas, the army turned all its economic resources to survive we produced weapons and ammunition as much as possible. We mostly survived and eventually got rid of the hoop. Don’t underestimate people and the desire to survive.

epunkt

I agree with you in part. However, the Ukrainian army cannot be compared with Hitler’s army at Stalingrad. The Ukrainians know winter and unlike those at the Battle of Stalingrad in 42/43 they will have the proper equipment. The Russian winter offensive in 1944 is not comparable to the current situation, as Hittler believed that the Russians were coming through Hungary and against the advice of his advisors sent his soldiers to Budapest first. This is more comparable to Putin. Recently saw an interview with a former officer of Putin’s guard. No idea how they managed to do that. Anyway, today he lives retired and embittered with a pension of $50 somewhere in the deep east of Russia. He said in his time you got support before an assignment, today the superiors just yell at you. Fear is what keeps the Russian army together – for the moment.
As for the German gas and oil supply. Yes, it will be difficult in the winter, if they do not find other suppliers. But the new German government, especially the Minister of Economy has managed to reserve 4 out of 5 LNG terminal ships on the market for Germany. I think it will be tight and expensive, but it will work.
On Popasna, (I would be interested in your sources on the fortifications) yes it is on a hill but whether it is strategically significant remains to be seen. If you look at topographic maps, the whole area is mountainous. Hills and mountains alternate. Northwest of Popasna is not a wide plain. To the west it is. But all this is not a teritorium for tanks. For the Russians, however, it is very important, because without its capture it is impossible for the Ukrainians to take back Mariupol.
Nevertheless, if the Russians manage to create a corridor from Popasna to Yampil in the northwest, it would be fatal. Certainly, it is true that all these small gains and losses are insignificant for the big picture. But they show quite well what the Russians can and cannot do. If they could take the whole cake, they would. But they have to let Ukraine get close to the border in Kharkiv to secure other operations. In doing so, they risk endangering supply routes on Russian territory. Belgorod is 24 miles from the Ukrainian border. That is atallery range. There is not much left.

AZOG

I am not comparing the armies, I am comparing the tactics. I see similarities between Poznan, Konigsberg and Wroclaw and Mariupol, Popasnaya and other cities and towns in Donbass. Of course Ukrainians (and Russians) can perfectly well fight in winter and they are sturdy people. The problem for Ukraine will be food (no harvest this year) and fuel (prices and serious shortages already common). It might affect the logistics, the morale and it’s not inconceivable that people will start questioning if they still want to fight. Russian morale is a factor as well of course, the question is who crumbles first (no, I disagree that the Russian army is only held by fear, this is nonsense, no army can be held together – and advance – by only that).
The issue for Germany is where to get the LNG itself (even assuming that the regasification issue is solved). Qatar isn’t so enthusiastic because it wants a long time deal, but Germany is, well, green nowadays. It might even mean that Germany would still buy the Russian LNG which would go through some ‘laundering’ via 3rd parties with the smugglers tax included. Regardless, it will be massively more expensive than today which means – in the long run – reducing the competitiveness of the German industry. Will Germans, simple working folk I mean, want that in the long run?
Re Popasna, for example https://t.me/brussinf/4672 (Okay, NOT Maginot line of course, but still looks like a solid defense line)

vachefolle

I stopped reading the message at “the winter is coming”….

JJ

EU will be fine without russian gas and oil… economy might take a little hit (nowhere close to what covid-19 did), but it wont be a huge problem.. BUT, russia has no way how to switch gas deliveries from EU to somebody else.. because those pipelines go into EU.. so once EU stops buying, russians will have to close the gas wells, as they need to be under pressure and any stoppage ends up destroying the drilled hole…

65% of all gas and oil export was going to EU… all those money will be lost in a year… russian government will suddenly lose 40% of its income, so they wont be able to pay wages and pensions to people… So.. no, its the russian government who is under time… they know they outplayed their hand, and now are just trying to get something they can present home as “victory” so people wont tear them apart when they realize their pensions will have to be cut in half next year… and on top, a lot of young people lost their lives, or ended up crippled, which will again, create another huge problem with demography down the road… while lets not forget current 20-25 demo is the smallest one, which will just increase the problem.. Oh, and of course, there is the emigration, where 4 million people left the russia this year, mostly middle class/educated people who know there is no future for them in current russia….

wolfgang

Russia can’t sustain this offense on multiple locations (south, Kherson & Zaporizihia and in the east , Donbass) for more than 1 month. Two or three weeks more and they will run out of fuel, ammunition, food, water..) and we will see these forces collapsing like around Kiyv.
The following factors are in favor of the Ukraine:
– modern weapons from the west (they will get heavy artillery – long range from Norway, Germany, France)
– anti – tank weapons like NLAW , Javelins, Panzerfaust 3 are destroying russian tanks and IFV ‘s easily
– Ukrainian forces highly motivated whereas motivation is a problem on the russian side
– Ukrainians know their territory and use it to their advantage (like the siversky donetsk river), have you seen the video
of a destroyed russian BTG near Bilohorivka?
– Russian offense in the Izyum axis has nearly stalled, even after more than 2 weeks of the Russian offense

Prediction:
Russia takes Sieverodonesk and Lysychansk
Ukraine will hold Slavyansk and Kramatorsk

Russian forces won’t be able to reach Dnjepropetrowsk, Kryvh Rih, Mykolaiv, Odessa and won’t be able to take Kramatorsk , Slavyansk.

AZOG

I would say heavy artillery will have much more serious impact than Javelins which didn’t seem to have any major impact at all contrary to what the media is saying.
Of course I saw the video, Russians messed up at the river crossing. Targeted by artillery from Lisichansk apparently. Do you perhaps know if this artillery position is still standing? Surely, river crossing always go according to the plan, it;s a perfectly safe thing to do. Never goes wrong for anybody. By the way, have you seen the video of Ukrainian pontoon bridge destroyed (ironically, across the same river, around the same time at a slightly different place)?
I’d be careful with predictions, but I see your point.

Alexey

Statistics.
The population of Russia is 145 million
The population of Ukraine is 43 million
The difference in human resources is 145/43=3.37 times
For the same losses, for every dead Ukrainian, 3 Russians must die.
Army: there is a professional army, there are mobilized soldiers.
When mobilizing in the army, a large number of low-motivated soldiers.
A large number of mobilized soldiers -> high losses, low morale.
There was no mobilization from Russia. Fighting professional soldiers.
There are several mobilizations from Ukraine.

RutilantBossi

You’re forgetting one thing, Equipment, Russia will run out of equipment before they can fully equip their mobilized troops, Ukraine on the other hand is being equipped by NATO which makes up 50% of the global GDP.

Ukraine has 16 million people fit for Military service and with NATO’s help they can equip a lot of them.

Alexey

Yes, everyone knows that NATO has the advantage in conventional weapons.
But Russia also has nuclear weapons. And Putin said back in 2018 – The essence of Russia’s nuclear doctrine is that the aggressor must know: retribution is inevitable, he will be destroyed anyway. And we, as a victim of aggression, we, as martyrs, will go to heaven, and they will simply die

Krystian

You are forgeting that Russia got hardly professional army, it is always used to be filled with reservists or people that are conscirpted for a year around age 18-20, they are not having regular professional army like most countries do.

That is the reason why many of russian soldiers that are members of regular unit are people with very, very limited expierience. They were sent to units and are members of regular units but the professional part is only the commanders and at max squad leaders. Those people are getting minimal training. There are very few units in Russian army that are not using said pattern. (for example elite units like VDV)

So just imagine even the tankers are having like few months of experience at max. It is not the way modern army should do. It is an left over from the USSR. Most post soviet countries resigned from that pattern for full profesional army (Poland for example)

Mobilization in Russia is understood as a massive mobilization, right now they are using only “Obligatory army service” soldiers, which I think you are missing in the picture. Without those people Russian army would be even 75% smaller.

All above is for Land Army component and Support ONLY, other types of forces do not follow said pattern (for example VDV, Air Forces), They are using servicemans on much lower level and are not dependant.

Please refer to soldier who is going to be judged in Kiyv for killing old man. He is a good example

Alexey

To say that the Russian army has little experience is very reckless. Remember who supported Assad in Syria.

Krystian

so few thousands out of milion army that were doing slaughterhouse of people that were hardly having anything more than just AK-47 is an experience? You dont understand that their army is hardly having regular soldiers in land component. And land forces were not used is Syria, mostly air and special forces +VDV + Wagner Group

Ulenspiegel

“The population of Russia is 145 million
The population of Ukraine is 43 million”

Which share of the Russian male population is willing to fight in Ukraine? Which share of Ukraine population is fighting?

But modern wars are also decided in factories: Could you provide the relevant industrial capacity of Russia, the EU and USA? You do not see an issue?

John

Not mobilizing is going to lose you the war. Serves you right, Russian Fascists are cowards that want to send others to rape and murder for them in Ukraine. You don’t believe any of that of course, just like you believed Putin when he said you weren’t going to invade Ukraine. Oh go ahead, threaten nuclear retribution like you did further down when someone mentioned NATO is stronger.

epoint

@XPOINT
I don’t know where you get your information about Europe and the EU, but one thing is certain: for a long time Europe has not been as united as it is at the moment, for a long time NATO has not been as united as it is at the moment. Yes, there are some EU states that have a harder time accepting the new realities. But I don’t see the EU’s support for Ukraine waning, even if everything in the EU takes a little longer than in the US. But Ukraine is the front garden of the EU. An occupied Ukraine would be worse for the EU than for the US. Ukrainian refugees have been accepted and allowed to work throughout the EU without any problems! The willingness to help is great. Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, but also all other EU states have taken in over 6 million refugees so far. Only GB has a problem.
I can’t see any funds “flowing” to the USA. I don’t see any crack in the relations between the USA and the EU. It is possible that this will change again in 2024 with Trump’s diplomacy. But we are not there yet. Tesla and Intel are inversting in the EU and building risky factories to reduce the dependence of the USA and the EU on China. In addition, with Finland, NATO gets one of the best trained and best equipped armies in Europe. That’s what Russia got! Make Nato and EU stronger and more united.
As for the terrain gains and losses of the Ukrainians. Have you ever looked at the terrain there. The meandering rivers make it difficult for both. But Ukrainians have an advantage, they know the terrain and they have learned from 2014. Bringing back territories is a different story. As long as there is enough support, it will be possible for Ukraine to hold and reclaim territory. But I am convinced that they will, more than many US and EU militaries who saw Ukraine occupied after 14 days. And now here we are.
Of course, you are right when you say how long will such support last? But the Russians have a much bigger problem. An incredible amount of technology has been delivered to Russia and that needs support. Boeing, Airbuss, have delivered many airplanes, for which soon the spare parts are missing, this concerns also Russian own developments. Computer components may still come from China and a Kalschnikov will always be found. But modern high-tech war equipment will become more and more difficult to build and to replace. But it will become more and more difficult for the Russians.

xpoint

My comment was deleted, yours remains. If all of you against me but not afraid of me, we can find a place where we can speak freely to discuss further.

AZOG

Excellent point about Boeing and microchips. I’d say the best among all the posts today. A major headache for Russia ( I still cannot believe it managed to kill the Soviet aircraft industry). But well, this is the new reality, the world is in the new cold war. For the time being the West and the Russia will have to live apart from each other. If they manage not to kill each other and the rest of the world in the process that would be a huge success already.
First, there are all kinds of ‘smugglers’ and willing 3rd parties who could help. Second, Russia has capabilities to restore the lost industries (will take decades, no question here)

Needle

These days the Russians are always saying they crossed the river and attacked Pryvillia .But there has never been an accurate report.

xpoint

The message I got is that Russia has established 6 river crossing points and successfully established bridgeheads. I did not check the source, maybe there will be accurate news today or tomorrow.

Ronald Verweij

Hmm, are you russian?……….

xpoint

Let’s give up identity so as not to lead the conversation into personal attacks. Put the facts on the table. You can show your evidence. I have not confirmed that Russia crossed the river. Like you, I have seen photos of the bombed Russian pontoon bridge, and I have not seen the Russian army crossing the river. I’m just saying there is such an uncertain news. We can wait for follow-up reports.

P

Could you tell me what (hypothetical) event will make you change your opinion and see the war is going bad for Russia? Is there any such event thinkable for you?

Mark

@XPOINT This guy analyzed the footage of the river crossing. He came to the conclusion that one army build a pontoon-bridge and there was a tank battle between both armies for a week. https://greatwarchannel.medium.com/%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0-922630a9ab71

Guilherme

Nah, Russians don’t have access to free internet.
He is just a Pro Russia that doesn’t want to live in Russia itself.

Comment

Negative success:)

Volodymyr Akimov

OK, now you’ve got a great typo. For a village “Rusky Tyshky” you wrote “Rusky Tushky” (Руські Тушки), which means “Russian corpses”.

Yrral

The first casualty of war,is the truth