Invasion Day 77 – Summary

The summary of the 77th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 11th of May 2022 (Kyiv time).

Day summary:

Wednesday passed without significant changes on the ground. Neither side reported new gains or losses.

The situation is reportedly slowly escalating in the nearby Belgorod Oblast. Russian air defense has been active more than usual tonight, and locals also report flying jets.

Kharkiv Frontline

includes the area of Kharkiv and Chuhuiv

partly sunny | ~16 °C

Shelling: Rusky Tushky

We are still waiting for confirmation if Ukrainian forces reached the border from the direction of Bairak.


Siverskyi Donets

includes the area of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut

cloudy | ~16 °C

Shelling: Oleksandrivka, Lyman, Rubizhne, Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kramatorsk

Rubizhne and Vojevodivka remain contested, the fighting is ongoing. Russian troops attempted to advance in the area of Lyman and Ozerne, but without success.


South-Eastern Front

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

cloudy | ~16 °C

Donetsk Oblast

Shelling: Marinka, Avdiivka

There was no change on the ground in Donetsk Oblast. Fighting continues in the vicinity of Avdiivka.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Shelling: Orikhiv, Huliaipole

There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.


Azovstal

includes the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol

mostly cloudy | ~19 °C

No change on the ground in Mariupol.


Kherson Frontline

includes the vicinity of Kherson and Mykolaiv

partly sunny | ~18 °C

Mykolaiv Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Mykolaiv Oblast.

Kherson Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Kherson Oblast.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of Russian Army, DPR and LPR (taken with a grain of salt)

Visit our Deployment map for updated interactive map of captured areas and Ukrainian units.

Make sure to follow us on Twitter & Telegram for the latest updates on Ukraine.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Needle

Thank you for your daily summary!

Yesterday’s shelling near Bilohorivka was impressive. Several Russian pontoon Bridges were broken. I don’t understand why the Russians don’t use air and artillery to clear out the Ukrainian artillery before crossing the river. Perhaps it was pressure from above that forced the commanders at the front to act so recklessly that the tanks and ifVs were blown to smithereens by the artillery.

P.S. There is still a lot of debate in my country about whether Zelensky is the legitimate elected president or a puppet politician of the West.

Paul

I voted for him and many ppl that I know did back in the 2019. He got a popularity vote of 73% mostly because many voted against Porosheko.
How Zelensky could be a political from the West if nobody in West knew him or took him seriously before this war? This idea that he is puppet from the West comes from the Russian propoganda. The gave zero idea in Russia what are the free electios are. 🙂

stan

Most obvious answer to your question: they cannot clear Ukraine assets, not that they have not tried, causes have been provided many times when discussing about Moscow army being impotent.
That being said they want to continue with this unnecessary invasion, pardon, special military operation so they attack regardless of losses as time is not in their favor.
I agree that their commanders are not very sharp, supreme commander (Putin) is first to come to mind.

PS: In your country people like to “debate” a non-subject, Zelensky is the legitimate elected president, especially when compared to the “elections” Moscow empire, pardon, Federation has. In other words if Zelinsky is not legitimate Putin is even less so.

Kris Wustrow

I assume you are an American, like me, and hear the nonsense spouted by the likes of Tucker Carlson who claim that Zelensky is a “CIA puppet.” I hear this trash from many of the isolationist types in Republican or conservative circles. I’m a Ronald Reagan Republican; just remember, a true conservative is one who believes in the principles of President Reagan, who would certainly be ALL-IN in the fight against Russian tyranny.

xpoint

Zelensky is not a puppet, but he is not a qualified president either, he is a good actor. He made a series of bad decisions that led him from one mistake to another bigger mistake. It is internationally recognized that there are few mature politicians in Ukraine.

Sławek

I don’t know how you can discuss something like this? Zelenskiy is the democratically elected president of Ukraine. If the US wanted to have a greater influence on Ukraine’s policy, Ukraine would have been in NATO a long time ago. Yanukovych was a puppet president of Ukraine. Russia had a great influence on his choice. Ukraine is paying a heavy price today for this traitor. If Ukraine had joined NATO then (and had, in my opinion, a good chance), as the Baltic states did, there would be no war today.

mark

@Needle Some tweets from this morning say that the RF-Forces crossed the Donets river and are advancing: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-may-general-staff-of-armed-forces-of-ukraine-russian-troops
I can’t read Ukraine nor Russian, I don’t live near the Donets river, so it’s hard to figure out what actually happened, if there were 1,2,3 or 4 crossings and if the damaged vehicles were RF or WUF.

Russian

The territory is completely controlled by armed terrorist mobsters from westernmost parts.
This is the moving force and the reason of the war.
They are not controlled by any state structure, despite being loosely assigned to “battalions”
No election or president is legit.
Liberated cities sees ten-thousands strong pro-russian meetings.
The population was terrorized and brainwashed for 8+ years, but its not completely coverted to hasitly invented ukrainian entity.

roskruge

my uncontroversial friendly comment not approved – Sad

Tüddelbüddel

Climate Change is also occurring in the former Soviet Union.
When there were war concerns in the media around 16th to 20th of February,
I googled weather Kiev, which had forecast early Spring with temperatures of -1 to +9°C the next 10 days.
That made me believe, the Russians wouldn’t be that stupid, and I did not believe in such “fake news”, thus I had been shocked with Putin invading Ukraine.

The terrain had been upgraded with hedgerows to prevent wind erosion possibly after 1945 as the U.S. had a forresting programme for the Prairies in the 1930s to reduce the effects of Tornadoes to the soil with dust clouds reaching Chicago and further east.

So Ukraine basically is a Normandy of 1944 , but in XXL-size fields, since modern diesel tractors first had shown up around year 1942, and horses still were used much in agriculture and therefore fields had been much smaller.

And despite the muddy terrain forcing tanks to roads while snow smelting and heavy rain, tanks are still forced to roads because of the hedgerows, whose cannot be broken through if several decades old.

In the end each road leads through some scattered settlements with many buildings of all kinds creating a constant urban warfare environment.

james

welcome to the club…

roskrgue

Thanks – Finally magnifying glass is in sync with map on all maps. DON’ touch leave as is.

Cornhusker

Not a whole lot of news to spark discussion as of today. I’ll ask something of the war in general: What’s your thoughts on how the terrain affects warfare? We’ve seen how much urban warfare benefits the defenders (example being Mariupol, Kiev, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv). That being said, it would be interesting to see how well Severodonetsk/Lysychansk defends and maybe if Sloviansk is going to be a fortress (if the Russians can reach it). Also, I wonder what the difference between warfare in the plains vs warfare in the forest and who’s got the advantage in these situations.

Alex

On the open plain, whoever has more artillery, aircraft, and tanks has the advantage. But in the forest, in the cities, marines, paratroopers, snipers and special operations forces show their best side. Therefore, in the Kharkiv direction in a wooded area, Ukrainians are gradually liberating settlements, where they have trump cards. But in the Kherson direction, in the open steppes, it is difficult for them to advance without a significant advantage in heavy weapons and aviation…

Henry Whitworth

In terms of terrain, certainly the rivers are playing a large role in otherwise open country. The Ukrainian drive north, possibly all the way to the border, used the Donets river to cover their right flank and the river is currently defining the boundaries of the fight in the northwest. And the Ukrainians look to have blown away pretty much a BTG worth of equipment and men as the Russians tried to ford the Siverskyi with pontoon bridges.

And, yeah, if Russia gets that far, I think all of the bigger towns in the Donbas are going to prove to be tough fortresses. We’ve already seen that in the places where Ukrainians have dug in the Russians pay a very high price to move forward at all. I think they’re going to run out of offensive energy before they take many or any of the big towns.

Alex

The Siverskyi Donets is shaping the most important parts of the war in its current stage in major ways, and has been doing so for many weeks now. The Russians fought very hard for Izium, because it’s a crossing point over it, and the Ukrainian side is desperate to retake it, committing vast resources east of Kharkiv to do so. Meanwhile, Russian forces are taking very big risks (and often losses) to cross the river around the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk conurbation, in order to surround it. They have recently suffered an important and costly failure in an attempt to cross it in force.

The river offers a good line of defense for Ukraine from Slovyansk to Lysychansk, and plays the same role for Russia east of Kharkiv, where its forces have retreated behind it. Ukrainian forces might also attempt to cross it in this area (I believe they’ve already tried and failed at least once).

According to Wikipedia, from December to March, it is covered by 20 to 50 cm of ice, which may also affect the course of the war in a big way, assuming the frontlines haven’t moved away from the river by then.

Major Rage

The most fundamental doctrine of modern war is this:
• What can be seen – can be hit.
• What can be hit – can be killed.

That’s really all anyone needs to understand about modern combat. Given the kinds of weapons and surveillance capabilities in the hands of the Ukrainian military – the Russians would be smart to avoid any World War II style mass armor formation combat over the steppes of southern Ukraine. I don’t believe they have enough operational strength to pull off that kind of offensive given the effectiveness of Ukrainian arms. Over-the-horizon surveillance capabilities of UAVs has shown that it is much harder to mass for an attack against an enemy equipped with long-range weapons and air assets that can strike deep.

As far as using the terrain of the steppe to mask one’s movements – that can be accomplished at the tactical level – but is extremely difficult if not impossible for larger formations. The only way for a large scale attack to succeed is to conduct mobile combat – think the mounted Mongol hordes of Genghis Khan – moving continuously fromd assemby area to attack position to line-of-departure to objective. I don’t see any indication that the Russian army has the skill to conduct such operations.