Invasion Day 73 – Summary

The summary of the 73rd day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 7th of May 2022 (Kyiv time).

Day summary:

Ukrainian forces withdrew from the most of Popasna and lost a small settlement in the Siverskyi Donets area. Ukrainian troops continue to conduct successful offensive in Kharkiv Oblast and liberated another village.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russian forces are building trenches and fortification systems near the border with Ukraine in Kursk Oblast.

Kharkiv Frontline

includes the area of Kharkiv and Chuhuiv

rain showers | ~18 °C

Shelling: Prudianka, Slatine, outskirts of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces liberated the town of Tsyrkuny near Kharkiv. Russian army, in order to slow down advancing Ukrainian troops, blew up three bridges in the vicinity of Tsyrkuny and Rusky Tyshky.


Siverskyi Donets

includes the area of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut

sunny | ~17 °C

Shelling: Velyka Komyshuvakha, Nova Dmytrivka, Dovhenke, Lyman, Rubizhne

Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions at Virnopillya, but the attack was repelled. The enemy has advanced towards Oleksandrivka, Nyzhnie and captured Krymsky.

Russian forces managed to seize most of Popasna and all published footage indicates that Ukrainian troops are no longer present in the city. The city lies in the rubble after two months of fighting and Russian indiscriminate shelling. Ukrainian forces most likely withdrew to nearby fortified positions.


South-Eastern Front

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

mostly sunny | ~18 °C

Donetsk Oblast

Shelling: Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, Marinka, Avdiivka

There was no change on the ground in Donetsk Oblast.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Shelling: Orikhiv, Huliaipole

There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.


Azovstal

includes the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol

partly sunny | ~18 °C

Russian troops used the civilian evacuation to its advantage and improved its positions around Azovstal. Furthermore, during today’s evacuation, three Ukrainian soldiers were killed and six more wounded.

According to Ukrainian deputy prime minister, all women, children and elderly people were evacuated from Azovstal today.


Kherson Frontline

includes the vicinity of Kherson and Mykolaiv

sunny | ~19 °C

Mykolaiv Oblast

Ukrainian forces reportedly targeted a Russian military warehouse in Ivano-Kepyne near Snihurivka.

Kherson Oblast

Shelling: n/a

There was no change on the ground in Kherson Oblast.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of Russian Army, DPR and LPR (taken with a grain of salt)

Visit our Deployment map for updated interactive map of captured areas and Ukrainian units.

Make sure to follow us on Twitter for the latest updates on Ukraine.

 
 
 
 
 
 
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Needle

In any case, it is a cause for joy that all the civilians inside the Mariupol steel plant have been evacuated.
The Russians had been thinking of civilians as neo-Nazis’ hostages, which I don’t quite admit, but it did slow down the attack.

Tadas

No one from civilians said that they were taken hostages, so that’s another “russian version” to blame “neo nazis”.

Dima

Please correct the occupation map.
Obviously, all villages of Kherson (and Mykolaiv) regions. located to the south of the Dnipro river are occupied,

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/05/7/7344742/

vachefolle

I do not see any interest for UKR to try to retake Snake Island.
Yes, they have to shell RU on it, destroy coming boats or RU helicopters, but, is they try to take the island, the result will be obvious. They will be shelled from far, every day, without any place to hide…
Also, there is no runway on this island, so I dont think it could be an platform for TB2… maybe just an extended coverage for neptun missiles.
Yes, it will be a political victory, but Ukr shall not do the same mistakes than Putin, by pushing for political goals before military objectives.
The only idea to take this snake island, would be to push Putin to force a move to retake it… and this could be a trap for RU… but this a very complicated strategy.

V

Odessa sea transport/export of grain into romania/bulgaria/turkey

Nicoo

sometimes denying an enemy to be present in an area is more important than being present in the area. I think that’s what the UA forces are doing.
During wartime an island (e.g. Götland, Island,…) is always interesting to *control*, it is like a battleship or sometime an aircraft carrier that can’t be sunk. Obviously RU forces tried (hard) and failed to *control* Snake Island.
There is a lot of discussion on internet about strategic (and economic) reasons to own Snake Island

Ardiana

It’s like shooting fish in a barrel. Empty it, and see if the Russians are stupid enough to come back, rinse and repeat. And print more “F off, russian battleship” t shirts while you’re at it.

JJ

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522525618432315393

Strike on TOR SAM placed on Snake Island:

Hlombersl

For those who believe that mobilization in Russia is possible, I will publish this post. I say right away that it was not me who wrote this, but from the Ukrainian telegram channel. Translation may not be accurate
1) The Russian Federation deliberately dismantled the Soviet army architecture, built around a skeleton of officers in units awaiting mobilization to bring them into “wartime conditions.” Instead, they tried to build a “professional army” – that is, a fully combat-ready colonial corps of contract soldiers. No one was going to fight NATO with millions of armies – all wars were supposed to be limited. Thus, the Russian army is not even architecturally designed for mobilization and a sharp expansion of staff – all the tools necessary for this were deliberately removed. The government of the Russian Federation, including Putin, is aware of this – they were the architects of this system.

2) There is no “mobilization reserve” in the Russian Federation. All programs for its creation, the same BARS, actually failed. There is a certain reserve of those who have served military service – but in order to put them into operation as combat units, it is necessary, in view of their unavailability, to carry out the same set of measures as for the newly mobilized. Roughly speaking, military service in the Russian Federation did not perform the function of creating a reserve – it performed the function of recruiting people for contract service. They extended the term for a peasant, he does not hold anything in civilian life, but here they offer good money – you can find a place in life.

3) There are signals that the grouping of the RF Armed Forces is experiencing serious problems with ammunition and fuel. I’m not sure if this is a global problem or just the result of poor logistics – the fact is that in the event of a significant increase in staff, supply problems will be even worse. to the critical.

4) At the moment, a huge number of officers have died or are in the combat zone. Around whom to create units from the mobilized and train them?

Finally, the sum of all these problems – how long will it take to prepare the mobilized? If they are sent unready, then they can only be used as a means of demining – why are there units on the battlefield that cannot perform their tasks, because they are not trained to operate even with standard weapons, and as a result of unavailability, the number of even ordinary ones is extremely limited? We have such a problem – what scale will they have? How much will this damage the controllability of troops, how much will the amount of friendly fire increase, how often will the RF Armed Forces lose directions due to the fact that they reported to the top that a unit is ready to carry out a combat mission in a given direction, and in fact will scatter after the first shelling?

Let’s move on to the political side of the issue. The war is called “SVO” in the Russian Federation, because people are afraid of war. Russian militarism is extremely limited – it comes down to the fact that all their potential opponents are much weaker than them, and they will be defeated by one leftist. And NATO is not a potential adversary, because there are means of deterrence in the form of the Strategic Missile Forces. Mobilization will be extremely unpopular and ineffective, firstly, and secondly, it simply will not be worth the candle.

The Russian Federation withdrew from the war in Chechnya precisely for this reason – it was even legally a war “on its own territory”, but it was not perceived as such. And in colonial wars they do not fight “to the bitter end”, because why, if you can get out with minimal risks? Yeltsin, if anything, after Khasavyurt [UPD: Nazran agreements, Khasavyurt was after the elections] managed to win the elections – that was when the regime was much weaker. And now the government of the Russian Federation has unprecedented means of control over the media and the elites, and the authorities, as the architects of this system, are well aware of its possibilities – it is now even easier for them to get out of the war than the United States recently left Afghanistan.

Ardiana

Interesting… so Ukraine and NATO could, in fact, push deeper into Russia and take some land, and Russia couldn’t do a damn thing about it save a first use of nuclear weapons?

Nicoo

I saw several tweets about the Russian MOD claims that UA forces suffered heavy losses in a repelled attack on Snake Island,
– Ukr Su-24 bomber
– Su-27 fighter,
– 3 x Mi-8 helicopters with troops
– 2 x Bayraktar-TB2 drones
– Ukrainian ship “Stanislav”
CNN also has reported those allegations, but DID NOT confirmed them: “The [Russian] ministry posted a video purporting to show Russian air defenses on Snake Island bringing down a drone. […] Earlier, the Ukrainian military also reported combat around Snake Island but did not comment on any losses. It released drone footage”
source: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-07-22/index.html

well… I’m still waiting for more proofs…

JJ

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1523027490230444035?s=21&t=cyywaXYUf62Z7a4gB86ZZQ

here you have bomb run from two Ukrainian planes hitting Snake Island… they dont look to be shot down… video made by Bayraktar drone, so similarly, seems to be fine…

also earlier, there was another video published with Bayraktar drone striking Snake Island, destroying SAM systems, destroying landing craft with TOR SAM on it

Nicoo

now we have video of RU MI8 shot down by TB2. Even better:
“The Russians have reportedly retreated from Snake Island!”
source: https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1523270259171495936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I hope this is true…

JJ

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1522897994701549573

video of the strike on the landing craft

Ardiana

I can believe the drones being shot down, as they are all around there. The ship is a bit hard to believe as I thought russia already sank all of Ukraine’s navy.

Henry Whitworth

“Russian army, in order to slow down advancing Ukrainian troops, blew up three bridges…”

It’s an odd thing to report in the midst of the big Russian offensive, aint it? Ukraine is cutting into the flank of the strongest axis of the Russian advance. The Russians have got, what, something like 22 BTG’s around Izium? Who is encircling who here?

Alex

This large Russian force is in or south of Izium, not east of Kharkiv, where there aren’t many Russian troops. It makes sense to blow up those bridges in order to make this flank easier to defend with minimal troops, so as to keep focusing on the south. But Ukrainian forces are a long way from cutting off these southbound troops.

Ardiana

I can verify that the troops near Kharkiv were, indeed pushed away and not retreated. They tried to retake Stary Saltiv soon after but failed:
“In the Slobozhansky direction, russian enemy tried to restore the lost positions near the city of Kharkiv, made an unsuccessful attempt to attack near the settlement of Stary Saltiv.”
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/05/05/the-operational-update-regarding-the-russian-invasion-on-18-00-on-may-5-2022/

nicoo

past days, there is a lot of debates here about a possible mobili[Z]ation…
according to this tweet (Video in the tweet): https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1523036461595242498
“Senior military expert on Russian state TV argued that mobilization wouldn’t accomplish a whole lot, since outdated weaponry can’t easily compete with NATO-supplied weapons and equipment in Ukraine’s hands and replenishing Russia’s military arsenal will be neither fast nor easy.”
Like him, I think RU forces (within the current context in russia and in ukraine) would not get enough benefits from a mobilization.

Marko

Dude, mobilization would bring victory to Russia, that’s my opinion.
It would not be fast (~3 months of preparations), but it would bring.
That’s exactly what the Russians are missing … They are simply outnumbered in all directions.

Ukrainians are mobilizing all the time, so for more than 2 months, and the Russians are bringing a very small number of new forces. Because they don’t have any more… I mean they have, but that’s actually, 300.000 to 400,000 conscripts or simply forces that have remained in parts of the country so they don’t become empty… And they simply cannot leave the Caucasus, Far East, western borders empty … And even Syria.

But I also think that the Russians will never do that.
Because … Putin will never allow his quick special operations to turn into war.

Nean D.

Dude, define victory. Major land grab along with crushing Ukrainian fighting spirit ?

Every time we make a prediction like that, it’s Russia-centric. Did we ask Ukrainians though: after some extent of territorial losses and casualties, are you going to lay down weapons and surrender your freedom to orcs forever?

The “victory” comes after one side can’t fight any longer. I wouldn’t bet for that side to be Ukrainian.

matod4

in alternate reality 😀

Leron

At this point the harder you push the more devoted defenders will be. The more man you will bring the easier it will be for UA artillery to hit targets. Only way for Russia to advance forward is a slow methodical war, but then it would lead to massive internal problems. At this point the only choice Putin has is to announce victory and fall back to defensive positions and try to force peace talk that acknowledge incorporation of the lands into RU. Ofc Ukraine would never agree to it, but they would lose some diplomatic ground and in 20-30 years maybe it would be considered only a border friction…

So in the end this war is a disaster for Russia not even accounting for fact that Finland and Sweden gonna join NATO at some point which put Russia in way worse position it was before 24 FEB.

SES

You also need to remember that the economic sanctions won’t disappear even if Putin tries to claim some sort of victory. Those sanctions will gradually strangle the Russian economy, especially if the embargo on oil/gas is actually implemented.

Yojo

Absolutely not true. Ukraine needs to keep the army around the whole border with Russia, Belarus and Moldova. Also theirs mobilized units are not in the fight yet. Right now Russia has more soldiers against Ukraine, but it will change in one month, when mobilized units comes to fight. And it is ridiculous to call it special operation when almost whole professional Russian army is involved plus Kadyrovs, Wagner group, Syrians.

nicoo

if (Polohy == Pology && Zaporizhzhia == Zaporizhzhia)
{
Polohy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is controlled by RU forces on the map. I saw this tweet today:
“Today, after the #Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian armor at the village of Pology in
#Zaporizhzhya province, Russians left their positions. (Source: Gen. Staff of UAF). This
settlement is the next achievement in the corridor for the theoretical liberation of #Mariupol.”
source: https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1522975265252589568
the author is clearly pro Ukraine (he served a couple of years ago as officer in the UA army).
}

Volodymyr Akimov

I take it he says about SOME positions in the area of Polohy. It does not imply complete withdrowal from all around Polohy. There are MANY Ru forces and positions there.

nicoo

ok thx