Invasion Day 46 – Summary

The summary of the 46th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 10th of April 2022 (Kyiv time).

Additional Ukrainian reinforcements have arrived to Donbas, while the evacuation of civilian population from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts continues. Russian troops are slowly, but surely advancing towards Avdiivka.

Sloboda Frontline

includes Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblast

Kharkiv Oblast

Russian troops maintain positions near Kharkiv, as Ukrainian forces don’t seem to have means to push the enemy to the border. A large Russian military convoy was spotted near Kupiansk, moving in the direction of Izium. Ukrainian HQ suspects that Russian army might go for Dnipro instead, and the Slovyansk operation is just a diversion.

Luhansk Oblast

Russian artillery hit nitric acid tanks in Rubizne and shelled Ukrainian positions near Sievierodonetsk and Popasna. The situation on the ground remains unchanged.


Pryazovia Frontline

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Donetsk Oblast

Russian troops reportedly advanced a few meters in Marinka and also pushed west of Verkhnotoretske. The Russian advance south-west of Horlivka is slow, but if they continue to push west, they may soon reach the main Ukrainian supply route towards Avdiivka.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian Army doesn’t have enough heavy armor and anti-air defense systems in the area to push forward.


Mariupol

Russian troops hoisted its flag on the roof of Mariupol City Council. The building is located just two blocks from the Drama Theater, and it shows that the Russian progress in Mariupol is slow, despite the Russian propaganda claiming otherwise.


Southern Frontline

includes Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblast

Mykolaiv Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Mykolaiv Oblast.

Kherson Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Kherson Oblast.

Correction: Recently published video shows Russian troops in Stanislav, not clear when they entered the village. I adjusted the map.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of Russian Army, DPR and LPR (taken with a grain of salt)

Visit our Deployment map for updated interactive map of captured areas and Ukrainian units.

Make sure to follow us on Twitter for the latest updates on Ukraine.

 
 
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MoonKnight

Ukraine really needs to go on the offensive and push south from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol. If they did that they could cut off Russian troops to the west and south of Melitpol and could push east to Mariupol.

Alex

I like the new maps, thanks!

sdfsfghsfg

Forgot to mention that in Mariupol Russians captured fishing port effectively cutting Ukrainian Mariupol defence in half? twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1513276775681302528 Your info are outdated.

Alex

The paralles between this war an WW2 ares pooky. Just like the Germans in the East in 1941 were quickly overstretched trying to advance all over the place, in 1942 they focused on Stalingrad which was leter besieged and taken – and then lost; and in 1943 they tried to launch the last strategic offensive at the Kursk Bulge by a pincer movement from the north and south.

Now, Mariupol reminds the besieged Leningrad and Stalingrad – and it looks like it will ultimately fall into the Russian hands. Russian slow advances to the south of Kharkiv and to the north of Donetsk may also mean the Ukrainians will have to withdraw their forces from the bulge.

If by 9 May the Russians capture Mariupol and the Donbass, this may well be enough for Putin to declare ‘victory’ and offer a peace deal. The Russians then may dig in inviting the Ukrainians either to accept the de facto frontline as a new border or to attcak – which is going to be difficult as the roles will be reversed and the Ukrainians lack offensive weapons. If hostilities continue, the Russians will continue destroying Ukrainian cities and infrastructure with rockets – so the first phase of this war will likely to end with a ceasefire along this, now much longer border with the enemy.

With time, however, I expect the Russian regime to crack internatlly and externally which would enable Ukrainians to claims all the previously lost territories.

Luccas

Very good analysis up until the last paragraph when it turns into wishful thinking.

Jan

But don’t forget on long term work of sanctions against Russia. Russia will not have materials for repairing or even making new equipment. And Ukraine will be in better and better situation in comparison of Russia.

Jan

Yes, and for example wave of IT emmigrants from Russia. It will be HUGE problem for it.

Nicoo

after reading, I have the feeling that the RU forces are taking back the initiative east and south…

Anony

too soon to tell

Nicoo

I reply to you but the reply would be the same to @ANONY.
Sure, the UA forces are using defensive points (and your maps show that). The last month has shown that balance of power is in favor of the defender.

The obstinacy of the RU in this war in the face of the UA will to defend their land and their people, can the RU expect something better than a Pyrrhic victory on the battlefield ? (if they got one)

VS

According to ISW, Mariupol got bisected yesterday and russians control part of the port in city center.

Mazer

So, who controls Stanislav??

Dolgan

Russian. Probably since à few days.