Invasion Day 38 – Summary

The summary of the 38th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 23:59 – 2nd of April 2022 (Kyiv time).

The Kyiv Oblast has been liberated. The focus of all parties now shifts to Donbas, where the Russian Army concentrates its main force now and will attempt to capture Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

Russian Army targeted strategically important structures in Myrhorod, Kremenchuk, Poltava, Pavlohrad and Lozova.

Polesia Frontline

includes Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblast

Kyiv Oblast

Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported the entire Kyiv Oblast has been liberated on Saturday. A footage of Ukrainian troops in Bucha shows the streets are covered by civilian corpses, some with hands tied behind their backs.

Zhytomyr Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Zhytomyr Oblast.


Northern Frontline

includes Chernhiv and Sumy Oblast

Chernihiv Oblast

Ukrainian forces liberated Mykhailo-Kotsyubinske and Kyselivka in the vicinity of Chernihiv. In the east, the Ukrainian units regained control of Velky Doroha and will most likely soon recapture the remaining area of Nizhyn, Ichnia and Kruty.

Sumy Oblast

Russian Army concentrates its forces in the vicinity of Konotop, Buryn, Putyvl and Bilopillia. There are no indication of withdrawal, as we could have seen in Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblast.


Sloboda Frontline

includes Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblast

Kharkiv Oblast

We’re still waiting on the results of the counter-offensive near Mala Rohan, Vilkhivka and Chuhuiv towards the Russian border. The fights have continued in the area of Mala Komuyshuvakha and Tykhotske.

Luhansk Oblast

Russian Army focuses all its forces to capture Rubizhne, Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk and Popasna. If the enemy manages to capture these four towns, it’ll open the path to Slovyansk.


Pryazovia Frontline

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Donetsk Oblast

Russian troops advanced a few meters in Marinka and attempted to storm Vuhledar, without success.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.


Mariupol

The exact situation in Mariupol remains unknown due to the fog of war. Ukrainian forces still remain in control of some portions of the city.


Southern Frontline

includes Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblast

Mykolaiv Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Mykolaiv Oblast.

Kherson Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Kherson Oblast.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

Russian forces shelled Inhulets and the outskirts of Kryvyi Rih with GRAD missiles.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of Russian Army, DPR and LPR (taken with a grain of salt)

Visit our Deployment map for updated interactive map of captured areas and Ukrainian units.

Make sure to follow us on Twitter for the latest updates on Ukraine.

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Yuriy

Hello, guys! Thanks a lot for your job! But still I wonder why you mark as the parties of this war as Ukraine and “separatists” (e.g. on the bottom of this page)? Where is Russia as the party of this war? It made me confused, correct me please, if I am wrong.

Augusto14

As to the Sjewerodonezk area:
1. The Russian MOD has, in Saturday’s afternoon briefing on FB, posted to have reached the eastern and southern outskirts of Borovskoye (Boriwiska), and on Friday reported having reached Metjokine. Both villages are on the eastern outskirts of Sjewerodonezk.
This may be a bit too fine-grained for your maps (which anyway are much more fine-grained than most other maps published elsewhere). Still, it seems to me that you have both places for some days already marked to lie in the Russian zone of control, while they f.t.b. still seem to be under Ukrainian control.

2. Destruction of the Oskol dam has resulted in flooding of areas downstream the Sjewero Donezk river. Because of the current snow melt, and rainy weather projected for the area in the coming week, I would imagine that flooding to increase and progress further downstream. This could initially affect Ukrainian efforts to defend places on the NE Bank (Jampil, Kreminna, Rubishne, Sjewerodonezk). However, should these fall, it could equally hamper Russian efforts to cross the river towards Lyssichansk and Slowiansk. Might be something to consider, or at least to keep in mind in future analyses.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/2/7336627/

Augusto14

The Russian Saturday morning briefing on FB has furthermore reported that “Units of the armed forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic have captured most of Novobakhmutovka”. Whatever “most of” means – I think you should change the status of the village from “Ukrainian controlled” to at least “contested”.

Otherwise, I continue to wonder about your placement of Panteleimonivka. I still believe any mention made so far relates to

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panteleimonivka_(urban-type_settlement)

And, yes, I am aware that there is a village of the same name with 77 inhabitants further north. However, if you check the Ukrainian and Russian WP, both of which are usually very quick to add any change in hands during the on-going war (check the Horodnaja page), none has so far mentionned any war events there.

Nemo

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/rosiyany-sformuvaly-na-sumshhyni-korydor-dlya-vidstupayuchyh-rashystiv/

Has a map of the northeast with their interpretation of recently-liberated/remaining Russian-controlled road corridors.

(I also posted yesterday about the Sumy-Romny road.)

Alex

I’d be very careful about the statement that all of Kyiv oblast is back under Ukrainian control. A lot of sources indicated significant Russian presence there over the past 48 hours, and they’d been digging in for days, which is not something you do when you intend to pack up and leave entirely.

As the fog of war dissipates, I think we’ll find that they retreated north somewhat, but still have a significant presence in the oblast.

Tokugawa Ieyasu

List your sources as a counter-argument then, so far I know, almost every source indicated that the Russian army was in full retreat at the north (back across Berorussia) and the east of Kiev (towards the Russo-Ukrainian border).

Timothy Hurley

They might be dug in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. In which case that’s good for UA 🙂

Ronald

They handed back the plants itself to UA authorities, so seems unlikely they’re dug in in radioactive soil.

Augusto14

As to the Northern Frontline:

1. Russian troops have been reported to have left Horodnaja, NE of Chernihiv (see link, c.f. ISW’s assessment of tonight). Acc. to the article, Russian troops not just left the town, but the whole rayon, and destroyed a border post (probably the Senkivka crossing at the border to Belarus and Russia).

https://suspilne.media/224587-zsu-zvilnili-kiivsinu-rosiani-okupovuut-centr-sumsini-2-kvitna-so-vidbuvalosa-v-oblastah/

2.As there aren’t any viable border crossings from Russia into Ukraine along the Snow river marshes east of Senkivka up towards Semenivka, it might be time to re-assess the extent of Russian control North and East of Snowsk and Mena.
More specifically: I wouldn’t exclude the possibly that Nowhorod-Sieversky rayon is still under Russian control, albeit I don’t remember to have read anything about the situation there. Possibly, quite a lot of that rayon was just colored “red” in the initial day, when still everybody assumed fast and thorough Russian progress. Nevertheless, even if that Rayon should still be Russian, I’d doubt their control of the lands between the Snow and Desna river is still reaching far beyond.

Jon

I think Ukraine will have troops sweep the northwest of Kyiv in a variety of ways to look for stragglers or remaining RF forces.

Mykola Jerya

Thanks a lot for Your efforts!