Invasion Day 31 – Summary

The summary of the 31st day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 23:59 – 26th of March 2022 (Kyiv time).

Russian command announced change of tactics and the new primary goal – Donetsk and Luhansk Regions. Ukrainian forces liberated Trostianets in Sumy region.

Polesia Frontline

includes Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblast

Kyiv Oblast

Journalists located in Kyiv reported heavy battles in Irpin and Hostomel. We have no further intel on the situation there.

Zhytomyr Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Zhytomyr Oblast.


Northern Frontline

includes Chernhiv and Sumy Oblast

Chernihiv Oblast

Russian troops entered Slavutych and set up checkpoints at the entrances. The residents gathered on the main square and protested against the occupation.

Sumy Oblast

The elements of Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade fully liberated Trostianets. The remaining Russian troops have reportedly withdrawn towards Russian border. Ukrainian Territorial Defense units regained control of Boromlya, west of Trostianets.

I wrongly marked Boromlya as unoccupied until today, apologies. The fog of war.


Sloboda Frontline

includes Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblast

Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces shelled Kamyanka (near Izium) by TOS-1 flamethrower system. Ukrainian troops are reportedly still present in the southern part of Izium. The command of Ukrainian Forces said that Russian reconnaissance groups have advanced towards Barvinkove and Slovyansk.

Luhansk Oblast

The enemy assaults on Rubizhne, Sievierodonetsk and Popasna remains unsuccessful.


Pryazovia Frontline

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian troops repelled an enemy attack on Novobakhmutivka, which indirectly confirms that Russian forces gained full control of Verkhnotoretske.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.


Mariupol

The fighting continues.


Southern Frontline

includes Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblast

Mykolaiv Oblast

The status of the Russian element in the area of Inhulka, Yavkyne and Partyzanske remains unknown at this moment.

Kherson Oblast

Russian Army shelled Novovorontsovka, the village they lost yesterday. Ukrainian forces reportedly advancing towards Kherson, but we have to yet see the proof.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of DPR and LPR (taken with grain of salt)

Visit our Deployment map for updated interactive map of captured areas and Ukrainian units.

Make sure to follow us on Twitter for the latest updates on Ukraine.

 
 
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Augusto14

As to Mykolaiw region, you might find this Estonian TV report, with English subtitles, interesting. Obviously, Vynohradivka has been retaken by Ukrainian forces (or rather been given up by the Russians). Since that village lies immediately west of Inhulka, I seriously doubt that there is still any Russian presence in Inhulka.

https://t.me/UkraineNowGerman/2810

OTOH, some fighting north of Mykolaiw is still reported, meaning that here and there some Russian control should be left.

AZOG

Regarding the Russian announcement about the change of tactics, well, not exactly, Russian command announced that Donbass was the primary objective from the very beginning.

“The presence of Russian troops in the area of Ukraine’s blockaded cities restrains Kiev’s forces.
Initially we did not plan to storm them in order to prevent destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians. Although we do not rule out such a possibility, as individual groups complete their tasks, and they are being successfully solved, our forces and means will concentrate on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbass”

Full text (in Russian) https://www.trackingnews.ru/itogi-1-go-mesjaca-svo-ot-mo-rf/

Tokugawa Ieyasu

You missed one very important point — Published date : 25th March 2022. (well, clearly, the state-media could say anything to cover his country’s blunder in “current stage”, so no matter how the Russian media tried to cover up, it’s unconvincing)

Another point is : if the Russian primary objective is merely the “liberation of Donbass” as he claimed, why did he launch a full-scale offensive throughout Ukraine along the very-wide front from so many directions at the very beginning of the operation ? Obviously, the Russian army sent forward to attack in direction of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, northward from Crimea is very large in size and strength, obviously not concentrated upon taking the cities in the Donbass Region.

If they were just the “feinted attack” for curbing the Ukrainian reinforcement, it’s totally unnecessary for doing so. Obviously the Russian state-media is just lying for covering the blunder, his statement was totally unconvincing at all.

AZOG

I have no idea what was the original plan and if it’s still relevant, neither I have all the data to judge what’s necessary or not and nothing is obvious to me at all. Having said that the official version provided by Russians seems consistent with the map that we are seeing today. As of now Ukrainian army in Donbass is pinned down, providing supplies and reinforcements to it is very difficult and there is a very real threat of large encirclement that would indeed allow to liberate/occupy Donbass.
Col Macgregor said more than a week ago that this is exactly what’s happening, well, maybe Russian general staff indeed attempted to storm Kiev, failed, then came across YT and decided, oh, this is brilliant, let’s tell them that was our plan!

Tokugawa Ieyasu

You don’t need to know about what’s the Russian planning to understand their basic / overall strategic objective — their movement has revealed their purposes.

If the Russian General Staff’s “initial primary goal” was just the liberation of Donbass, then what’s the advantage of sending huge amount of troops to attack such a vastly-wide front over 1,500 km long ? Such commitment of manpower and resource was totally disproportional with the much smaller objective of just taking Donbass, and doing nothing good for stretching troops so thin that imposed hugely unnecessary burden of logistics and command.

And now the Russian army suffered the huge losses and setback in face of intensive Ukrainian resistance, and then claimed that he just gonna “taking Donbass” strategically, can’t you see the absurdity of this statement ? A huge cost of manpower and equipment (including many super-expansive missiles and air force squadrons) just for taking the roughly one-tenth area named “Donbass” of the entire state of Ukraine ? The logic is laughable at all.

And not just that, for the first week of military operation (roughly from 24th February to 3rd March), it’s very clearly that the Russian army didn’t even focus the major effort on attacking the Ukrainian cities in the oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, or the eastern edge of the three adjacent oblasts (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizazhia), further disproved the Russian state-media’s claim.

So the picture was clear. The Russian primary goal was the conquest of the entire Ukraine, toppling the Zelensky government and replacing it with the puppet government under his control. His bet laid upon the “blitzkrieg” offensive for quite seizure of the capital Kyiv and other strategic towns throughout Ukraine to ensure the achievement of this purpose. And clearly, the Russian failed, so they changed their objective “now” in suited with the current situation.

But the Putin Regime simpily could not admit that to his people. Otherwise, the people would shout : so what about the costly sacrifice of soldiers and equipment our state had suffered ? That’s why Russia spreaded this kind of propaganda in an attempt to calm down the Russian masses’ speculation and question. But we all knew the answer.

Azog

Taking Donbass and destroying the Ukrainian army is anything but simple, my understanding is that both sides were preparing for this for years, given that both armies are quite capable, surely their respective plans must have been quite sophisticated.
I guess we’ll see, if Russian narrative even remotely reflects the reality, there will be significant developments in April. If, on the other hand Ukrainian story and the astonishing numbers that they provide are correct, the Russian army is likely to collapse by May. I sincerely hope it’ll be over by then

JoeChow

From the outset, Russia’s goals have been vague and elusive. The Western world believes that Russia’s purpose is to annex the entire Ukraine, which is obviously their imagination. But why is there a need for such a war if it is just to protect those two independent and divided regimes? In fact, at the beginning of the war, there were some analyses that Russia wanted to ensure a high degree of autonomy in eastern Ukraine and establish land transport to Crimea. This is perhaps understandable. However, this also doesn’t help us understand such a long battle bean front, because it wastes too much energy.

Anonymous

Why is konotop always marked as still in Ukrainian hands? didn’t the Russians capture it on February 25?

Anonymous

From my understanding the Mayor declared it open and basically surrendered the city in return for no change in admin.

Since this site focuses on military not political it should be marked as taken. But there could some issue about Russian forces avoiding to enter the city, hence not marked as taken.

Anonymous

Ok thank you for clearing that up somewhat.

CortoM

So Russians are making pincer moves from South (Avdiivka) and North (Izum) to encircle best Ukrainian units in area of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk. IMO relocating military units from Sumy/Kharkiv region to aforementioned area.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1507852956070260741?s=20&t=DRXt8NteW_qkvj7K74nn0w
That is why we see some Ukrainian success in area of Kharkiv and Sumy.

Russians are introducing conscription in Russia
https://twitter.com/Tibtinabulum/status/1507846565691543561?s=20&t=DRXt8NteW_qkvj7K74nn0w
Conscription in Donetsk and Lugansk is already done.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1507580324842246147?s=20&t=DRXt8NteW_qkvj7K74nn0w

It will be very hot summer.

Mikhail

“Russians are introducing conscription in Russia”
this document is a Ukrainian forgery. there are two grammatical errors in the stamp, and in one of the errors the word russian is written as rusian. Росийской вместо Российской

CortoM

Grammatical error yes, forgery maybe. What possible motive Ukrainian side will have to do this? For Ukrainians it s the same thing with or without Russian conscription they have to fight to survive.

Sir Rheinholt

looks great again, those maps of yours. Would you consider putting invasion maps into “gifs” with date stamps that would show the ebb and flow of forces over time? Not sure how difficult it would be to do but could help understand the motion of units.

Thanks again for all you do!

Avremi

1+

PJF

Thanks for the presentation.

The map of the salient down to Kyiv west of the Dnieper needs tidying. The coloured occupied zone as shown would suggest that the entire Russian force is cut off from resupply, since the road from the border, through Poliske and down to Ivankiv is not under the control of the invader.

Otjituuo

Thank you for doing this every day. It means a lot to have reliable information.