День вторгнення 94 - Підсумки
Підсумки 94-го дня російського вторгнення в Україну станом на 22:00 - 28 травня 2022 року (за київським часом).
Підсумки дня:
Українське командування визнає погіршення ситуації на Донбасі і натякає на можливість відведення українських військ з району Сєвєродонецька та Лисичанська, щоб уникнути оточення.
Російські війська повільно, але впевнено просуваються в напрямку Лисичанська та Бахмута, але поки що безуспішно на всіх інших напрямках.
Харківський фронт
включає територію Харкова та Чугуєва
частково сонячно. ~20 °C
Обстріли: Прудянка, Черкаські Тишки, Петрівка, Тернова, Коробочкине, Чепіль
Російська армія нещодавно відремонтувала (знову) залізничне сполучення з Куп'янськом і відновила постачання залізницею.
Сіверський Донець
включає територію Слов'янська, Краматорська та Бахмута
дощові зливи. ~24 °C
Обстріли: Велика Комишуваха, Нова Дмитрівка, Вільнопілля, Студенок, Святогірськ, Богородичне, Діброва, Озерне
Увечері українські військові повідомили, що російські війська обстріляли українські позиції у Великій Комишувасі, що свідчить про те, що українські війська нещодавно відновили контроль над містом.
Російські війська атакували українські позиції у Довгому та Пасівці, але безуспішно. Натомість у Лимані ворог досяг успіху і змусив українські війська відступити з міста.
У напрямку Сєвєродонецька ворог атакує околиці міста з півночі, а також Борівське та Осколонівку з півдня. Російські війська захопили східні околиці Устинівки і повільно просуваються в районі Тошківки.
Українські війська провели контратаку в районі Нагірного і відтіснили російські війська трохи вбік від головної дороги.
На Бахмутському напрямку російські війська захопили Мідну Руду та вийшли на околиці Клинового і Відродження. Ворог також атакував українські позиції в Новолуганському і мав частковий успіх.
Південно-Східний фронт
включає Донецьку та Запорізьку області
невеликий дощ. ~26 °C
Донецька область
Обстріли: Новобакмутівка, Новоселівка Друга, Веселе, Авдіївка, Піски, Красногорівка
Російські війська намагалися просунутися вперед і захопити нові позиції в районі Красногорівки, Авдіївки, Пісків та Золотої Ниви. Усі атаки були відбиті.
Українські війська провели контрнаступ на кордоні Донецької та Запорізької областей і звільнили населені пункти Новопіль та Новодарівка.
Запорізька область
Обстріли: Кам'янське, Оріхів, Гуляйполе, Полтавка
У Запорізькій області не відбулося жодних змін на місцях.
Херсонський фронт
включає околиці Херсона та Миколаєва
частково сонячно. ~23 °C
Миколаївська область
У Миколаївській області не відбулося жодних змін на місцях.
Херсонська область
Обстріли: Посад-Покровське, Благодатне, Зоря, Новопавлівка, Осокорівка, Нововоронцовка
Українські війська перейшли в контрнаступ на півночі і відтіснили російські війська через річку Інгулець до Білогірки.
Нещодавно оприлюднені записи з безпілотника показують, що російські війська повністю контролюють селище Олександрівка на півдні.
Повна мапа
Повна оглядова карта поточної ситуації.
Карти та стаття базуються на наступних джерелах:
Генеральний штаб Збройних сил України, офіційні канали українських обласних адміністрацій, Міністерства внутрішніх справ України, Міністерства оборони України, Служби безпеки України (СБУ), прес-релізи російської армії, "ДНР" та "ЛНР" (з певною долею умовності)
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Here is a pro-russian summary of recent events. I am not going to evaluate all details. However, they, as some pro-Ukrainian observers, e.g. N. Ruser, show an Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the S. Donez around Zarychne, from Khotimlya to Buhaivka, which makes me think it could be real.
https://t.me/swodki/106158
I think somebody already compared the war in Ukraine with the Winter war. A different war fought with different armies. Still, now when we are at 94th day the comparison still holds. In 1939 Soviet Union attacked Finland anticipating quick and decisive victory, but initially it didn’t go well for the Soviets. Finns managed to organize stiff resistance, they were ambushing convoys and they firmly held the defense line. Other European countries provided help (including… Читати далі »
The war can’t continue indefinitely if Putin isn’t able to fully mobilize Russia for war because his army is going to fall apart. I honestly can’t believe people who are really watching this can’t see the signs of weakness and even desperation in their incredible shrinking offensive. I mean, it will become apparent enough in time but this just isn’t comparable to the Winter War because that was a couple of years of fighting against… Читати далі »
You make a strong point, but they still have their artillery. Once they lose that advantage I’ll agree.
All they have is their artillery. Without a massive advantage in artillery the Russian army goes nowhere. Anything close to parity in artillery and they likely go backwards. Meanwhile the 155mm guns are just starting to arrive at the front. Ukraine has barely begun while Putin is running out of effective BTGs. Massing most of what can still go forward at one point in the line to fight a bloody, attritional battle for one actually… Читати далі »
well, apparently Putin decided mobilization isn’t needed at least not yet. We’ll see when one of the armies falls apart when it falls apart. Up until then it’s just a bunch of TG stories and speculations. From both sides by the way – but I must admit these days I’m seeing a lot more of Ukrainian POWs, than Russian POWs.
Yeah, he has his economic draft and he believes that will be enough to keep putting bodies into the line. When people have no prospects in life offering them a bunch of dough to sign up looks pretty good. But this isn’t going to give him any kind of army to be able to fight this ascendant, vengeful, Ukrainian army that even now is gradually converting to NATO weapons. He’s just continuing to victimize his… Читати далі »
So, in your opinion, what kind of army – hypothetically – would be capable of destroying the vengeful and equipped with NATO wonder weapons Ukrainian army? I’d accept ‘nobody, it’s invincible!’ answer, just being curious
I love your enthusiasm Herny. Meanwhile, back in the real world: https://rumble.com/v16gvyo-russian-ops-in-ukraine-west-changes-tune-as-russian-gains-continue.html Note the references to the liberation of Popasnya and Liman which you won’t have heard much about in the fake news and take notice of the tactical advantage the Russian, Donetsk and Lugansk forces are exploiting after having penetrated of the line of contact that the Ulrops have spent the last eight years fortifying. This post will take you around 30 minutes to… Читати далі »
Good comedy. Thanks for the effort.
By simply calling it a comedy you did not really give an answer to Erny72’s elaborated comment.
Elaborate in the way a game of whack-a-mole is elaborate. I don’t have respect for people who believe and/or parrot Russian propaganda.
Winter war. 3month 12 days. 800 000 vs 340 000. 3000 tanks VS 30 tanks.
Ukrain war. 94 + days. 250 000 vs 300 000 (and i choose number very favorable to russia) .
Did you see the problem with your comparison ?
Ukraine is not finland. And russia 2022 is not soviet union 1939.
And I said different war and different armies. If the armies were the same I would have used some other adjective – similar or equal, not different. Anyway, I see similar dynamics shared between these conflicts, one difference is a much greater role of the 3rd parties, in fact the external help and influence is what’s keeping Ukraine in the fight. I think it is reasonable to assume that without it Ukraine would have been… Читати далі »
The initial failure of the Soviet-Finnish war, from a military point of view, stemmed from confusion in command, because Stalin launched a major purge of the army leadership before the war. Every war takes its own shape, and logical reasoning is required if you are to prove victory. In this war, the Russian army lost in the early stage, and his imitation object is likely to be the Gulf War, but in the second stage,… Читати далі »
The Russian army has been willfully castrated by Putin as he needs an Army but he doesn’t want it to be strong enough to be able to oust him easily, Russia sucks because it is an authocracy, if Russia was a democracy like the west or better, it even joined the EU, it would be so stupidly rich and powerful it’s not even funny, but Russia decided to be fucking worthless to the world stage… Читати далі »
I think you are very brainwashed by the medias in your country, you should watch different news channels and connect with young people around the world. There are more than 4 billion people in the world who don’t agree with you, don’t you need to take a minute to think about why? I am very curious, I am learning where the Russian-phobia of Westerners comes from and why they are so blind. from a third… Читати далі »
because some of us are living too close to Russia (and her imperialistic disease) to feel safe – you know, to not be “protected by being invaded” or “force Russia to defend against you – meaning: being invaded”?
How do you think all these former vassals of USSR ran away to hide under that “bad Western skirt”? Maybe they had a reson?
You made it very clear, I can understand, thank you.
The Westerners wanted to keep Russia in a cage, they were almost done, they were about to put the last bar of iron to the cage.
Repeatedly ignoring Russia’s warnings, it is unwise for Europeans to insist on doing so. It is a pity that Ukraine fell in the collision of plates.
It’s not the ‘cage’built by the West – RUssia itself builds the one or rather particular strata of RUssian elites living in delusions from XIX century like ‘heartland theory’ – it wasn’t even a proper theory back then – just imperialism packaged as ‘science’. ‘NATO on borders’ was not a threat – to the contrary, for the 1st time in its existence Russia had safe western borders. ‘Ukraine somewhat more or less in EU’ meant… Читати далі »
There are a lot of differences tho, Finland had just 1/50th of the population of the USSR at the time, Ukraine has 1/3rd of modern Russia, Finland didn’t receive any outside help because Germany didn’t want to anger the soviets (after Molotov-Ribbentrop) and allies couldn’t acces the Baltic (also probably thought Finland was alligned with Berlin in some way) meanwhile Ukraine is receiving help from NATO. Another difference was that Finland relied on the Karelian… Читати далі »
Upvoted and this is what I saying. Assuming Donbass is lost for Ukraine (not a fact yet, but likely). Now, if:
– Ukraine (both army and society) still can and wants to fight and sets up new defensive line(s), say along Dnepr river
– West still wants to provide help and is not distracted by some other interesting events
– Russia still stands and wants to go ahead
=> forever war
(I really hope not)
I’ve predicted it correctly and said a few weeks ago the deciding battle will not be Sieverodonetsk and Lysichansk which will most likely innevitablty fall, but Slavyansk and Kramatorsk which the Ukrainian side have a better tactical advantage and position to defend. I think the battle for Slavyansk and Kramatosk will decide the fate of the entire Russian operation.
May be in one or two month. But at first they have to win this battle .
Yes, however the recent advancements suggest they are closer to encircling Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk. Once that happens, Russian forces will innevitably take the cities as it will be very difficult for the Ukrainian side to get supplies, ammo into that location as witnessed in Mariupol. Also, there is no good road network for Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk heading west. Theres one heading north and one south-west towards Bekhmut but they are both controlled by Russian forces.… Читати далі »
Since 2 or 3 days, no sign of russian advancements to encircling lysychansk. Its not an easy task. It could also turn like izium . The victory of russian is not sure. If they do, russian will also be encircling by ukrain. If lysyshanks dont fall rapidly, it will cost a lot for russian. For all of this, they need around 50 btg . I think they dont have the mass to do it without… Читати далі »
We’l see. If you look at the language coming from Kiev and the US, they paint a very dire picture on the situation in Sieverodonetsk. Even during the siege of Mariupol, I don’t remember them being that pessimistic. The troops on the front line in the east also feel abandoned and wan’t to retreat which may tactically be the smarter thing to do. Retreat doesn’t mean defeat. This is a recent article from the Washington… Читати далі »
The battle for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk is not the decisive battle, but is the battle that would ultimately seal the Donbass question as these would be the last two cities to fall in Donbass. The capture of Bakhmut would maybe be the decisive battle as it would allow the Russians to attack Slavyansk and Kramatorsk from the Izium, Lysychansk and Bakhmut direction. If Bakhmut falls, it will be game over.
So Ukraine is pressed at Sievierodonetsk and chooses to remain out in that salient and fight even though, from our armchairs, most people would pull them back across the river and trim those lines. Russia appears to have pulled BTGs from wherever they could to pour it on there. While most of the world sees that fight as somehow the defining moment where Russia “wins” something super important, Ukraine takes freshly trained and equipped forces… Читати далі »
Russians don’t have a sufficient force there, though. Ukraine sent a large part of Polish T-72 with new units there (according to Russian sources).
Yes, I’m speaking of the new battalion equipped with some of the T-72s from Poland. This was described in non-Russian sources as well which are the only sources I trust at all.
Thank you for your summary! Today is the 94th day.
The battle near Popasna is important but it cannot ignore the possibility that the Russians will cross the river and attack Siversk.
The capture of Siversk would mean irreversible consequences and I think the Ukrainian army would defend it to the utmost to avoid a possible Russian cut the last road. Even if it means reducing aid to the South.
I doubt they’ll manage to evacueate all those troops in time, the situation looks pretty bad and Ukraine should’ve pulled out earlier as soon as Russians managed to exploit to their advantage the propasna breakthrough, Ukraine should be extremely safe and avoid salients at all costs, time is on their side.
Ukrainians should ask for big amounts of artillery and rocket systems from Western partners, then hold for as long as possible the cities and areas that the Russians want to capture. Withdraw when the cities or areas gets too destroyed, and then simply let the Russians take over. Then the Ukrainains could pound the hell out of Russians who now needs to hold that ground, using their own tactic against them, since the area is… Читати далі »
And how do you propose to defend those large artillery and MLRS systems from air strikes?
How they do since 3 month?
Nb : patriot is also in discussion.
With air defense, these are no longer the first days of aggression, but there are certainly fewer air attacks, so there are fewer planes and especially capable pilots.
Leaving a heavily dug in, small force with plentiful ammunition and supplies to fight to the death would be superior tactically (Mariupol really helped, but they left too many troops there and not enough munitions stockpiles), as it’d hold the Russians up a long time, but not sure about the PR effect.
Well, even if they are encircled, they can fight for this city for a long enough time. Moreover, the Russians are not able to close the encirclement from the north.
Exactly, those who speak of withdrawing to save the men have a point in preserving the army over the territory, but stalling for time is important too. The key is leaving the right number of troops (not too many, since you’re likely to lose them, but not too few, so they can hold out) in the most heavily dug in area, with a massive amount of munitions. Not sure whether these cities have sufficient infrastructure… Читати далі »