День вторгнення 472 - Підсумок
Підсумковий огляд ситуації з російським вторгненням в Україну за останні 48 годин, станом на 10 червня 2023 року - 22:00 (за київським часом).
Слобідський фронт
включає територію між річками Оскіл та Айдар
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Активності не зафіксовано.
Сіверський Донець
оглядова карта околиць Слов'янська, Краматорська, Бахмута та Лисичанська
- Російська артилерія обстріляла українські позиції на північний схід від Торського, що свідчить про просування українських військ на схід. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Білогорівка, Веселе
Бахмутський фронт
включає околиці Бахмута
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Богданівка, Біла Гора
Місто Бахмут
місто Бахмут
Авдіївський фронт
включає околиці Авдіївки
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Sieverne
Донецький фронт
включає центр і південну частину Донецької області
- Російські джерела оприлюднили відеозапис з безпілотника, на якому видно просування українських військ на правому фланзі Благодатного, датований 5 червня. (джерело)
- З огляду на просування українських військ у цьому районі, населені пункти Благодатне та Сторожеве, ймовірно, будуть звільнені найближчим часом, якщо не вже звільнені.
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Маринка
Запорізький фронт
включає Запорізьку область
- Українські війська увійшли в Лобкове на південь від Степногірська. Раніше село знаходилося в сірій зоні. (джерело)
- Українським військам також вдалося просунутися на південь від Лобкового і взяти під контроль прилеглу територію. (джерело) (джерело)
- Російський безпілотник-камікадзе атакував українську колону на південний схід від Малої Токмачки, що свідчить про просування українських військ у напрямку Новопокровки.джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Активності не зафіксовано.
Херсонський фронт
включає лівий берег Дніпра на південь від Херсона та Каховки
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Активності не зафіксовано.
Повна мапа України
оглядова карта поточної ситуації в Україні
Ця коротка інформація та детальні карти ґрунтуються на наступних джерелах:
Генеральний штаб Збройних сил України, офіційні медіа-канали обласних державних адміністрацій, Міністерства внутрішніх справ України, Служби безпеки України (СБУ) та геолокаційні відеоматеріали.
Ми також дякуємо наступним користувачам Twitter за їх геолокацію та чудову роботу: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya та команді @geoconfirmed.
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In just a few more days or weeks, the occupiers will find themselves depleted of artillery.
Their previous engagements resulted in significant losses to their artillery positions. Additionally, their supplies are running low, exacerbating the situation.
Their excessive usage of shells has left them with no viable long-term defensive capabilities.
apparently UAF reached outskirts of Staromaiorskie (not confirmed). If that is true, then now we are in the ‘real stuff’ territory.
About The-thing-that-hasn’t-started. Generally offensive operations show some tactical success within the first – the most critical – 48 hours. Example is Kursk’43. Wehrmacht was able to break through the first Soviet lines of defense within days, even hours. Or Brusilov’s offensive in 1916. Arguably taking a few villages in grey zone while burning a bunch of equipment is not a success. ->
-> Chances are the Ukraine either cancels the whole thing and waits for the next opportunity or this offensive turns into a positional warfare of attrition like in Bakhmut. Disclaimer for the Brave Hawks of Ukraine here: I am speculating, don’t take it too seriously. Ukraine might actually break through but with every passing day the chances of rapid advance are getting thinner.
Not that i know much, but some one who should wrote that this phase is more about slowly overloading the prepared defenses and buidling up some momentum which may be explored by a “breaktrough” somewhere down the line. That breakthrough would probably be constituted be passing the major line of fortifications. On the Velyka Novosilka line, that would still be some 10-20 KM further south.
In the Tokmak direction, there are many lines and they start pretty much on the frontline. Your critical 48h would start when Ukraine decides to throw in the bulk of its prepared offensive brigades. We definitly have not seen that, and may not for some while.
Ukraine surely hasn’t committed all its reserves yet, so everything is possible of course. But the ’48 hours’ has both when and where aspects. Now we don’t know when but we know where (unless it’s all a huge diversion). Without ‘where’ as an unknown factor the element of surprise is considerably weaker, hence it’s back to what is called a positional trap where achieving rapid advances is difficul
Apparently, the Ukrainians moved only 20-25% of the assembled forces. They attack in several places and:
A – they will hit where they do best.
B – The goal is to bring the Russians to these areas and strike elsewhere.
Regards.
Congratulations, you are a victim of Russian propaganda.
There is no critical 48h or THE big offensive. At the moment we are in the probing phase, i.e. finding out where the enemy is positioned and how strong the fortifications are at the respective locations.
He is not a victim of Russian propaganda. He is a vector.
I get your point, but I don’t think Ukraine is using the same strategy like in Kharkiv. Ukraine has been very loud about the counter-offensive and hasn’t been hiding it
Well i mean there definitely won’t be another Kharkiv, Kharkiv was only possible because Russians didn’t really prepare for it and once the Ukrainians breached the frontline there was no fallback line, Russians had to retreat.
They claim to got back 4 villages so far. Maybe not much, but they are advancing south toward Melitopol/Marioupol.
There will be no quick advancement, this performance will most likely be cut off by the Ukrainian military, but it is still too early to talk about the result. They haven’t even reached the 1st line of defense yet, it’s just probing certain positions. The Russians are gradually retreating, leaving the villages, but it is worth remembering that there is still 1 line of defense behind them. >
Therefore, these villages are just a bargaining chip, or a gray area.
They are advancing quickly. What people expect? Marioupol in 3 days? 500m per day, in this conditions its fast.
In this area, russian only have one major lign of fortification. And nobody know the quality of this lign ( belgorod was also supposed to have a fortification lign …). We will discover that in a week.
Russia think cities, not supply line : priority was to tokmak/melitopol
srsly I dunno from where you got such a wisdom. 1st day in the Normandy was such a ‘success’ that Phyrrus would be envious. Operation Bagration (better example, though bear in mind that the resources’ balance was different) took almost month of colosal effort until really ‘started’. Operation Uranus really ‘kicked in’ after 3 weeks (and still was salvageable for the Germans at least –>
–> for the next two. And I am giving only most know examples for ‘wikipedia military experts who does not bother to read long articles’.
Noelle, with all due respect, you must be tired, usually you are making sense. But it must be you, I recognize the tone. On Uranus, in fact it’s a little hobby of mine: the front collapsed within days, Romanians were surrendering en masse. If by ‘salvageable’ you mean Wintergewitter I am sure we can have a nice discussion about it, but it’ll far exceed the format of these comments ->
I didn’t say it must be successful and over within 48 hours. WW2 operations took months, the scale was not even comparable. Neither I said that it must be necessarily successful and perfect. I said usually for successful operations there are real results right away which might be exploited or not later on.
ur anus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PbBoEYCQM0
A Russian comedy set in 2023. is nominated for an Oscar next year…. too cool
Something bothers me … why using the new tanks like Leopards and other stuff like the Bradleys in the first atttacks , why not keeping them in reserve ? Using old soviet or captured russians tanks directly on the front line could be better ? Is it due to better crew experience on the soviet weapons and equipments or is there something I am missing ?
The brigades thrown into the fight use what they got. In the direction of Tokmak that was one with the best Leo 2s they have and probably the best fighting vehicles, Bradleys. If they would have used sovjet gear there, those crews would all have probably died. With that gear used, they have a chance of surviving and fight another day. Gear can be replaced.
Western vehicles cannot withstand armour-piercing ammunition either. In principle, the crew in these vehicles is just as at risk if they are shot at or if the vehicle is on fire.
The advantage of western devices lies in the tactical area, i.e. better night vision and tracking devices, better driving characteristics and excellent in group attacks.
Soviet tanks are lighter and faster but they have worse stabilization, crap reloading mechanism and if they hit you you’re dead, it would make much more sense to use them to exploit a breakthough than to sound the frontline or conduct a slow and methodical push.
It is also skilful propaganda against the Russians. It is told about the superiority of Western equipment in order to spread fear and terror among the Russians. Which is more or less successful.
Kharkiv not karmic.
So is the offensive guard for clearing operations or are they taking over defense of sectors that counter offensive brigades were defending? Because there’s a couple by siversk couple in zaporizhia 1 in karmic and 1 by bahkmut. Didn’t find the other 3.
The Russians have blown up the dam of the Mokri Jalu river to slow down the offensive… Yeah, the Russians certainly haven’t blown up the Kahovka dam, how could anyone possibly think of that…
Drowning their own troops and thinning their major defence in the north-western sector of their front?
Truly some 5D chess if they really are responsible for it, my simpleton mind cannot comprehend the usefulness of shooting your own leg!
As if Russia cares… But obviously Ukraine wants to destroy it’s main southern reservoir destroying thousands of it’s houses, drying up a million Hectares of farmland and killing it’s people. Go back to your orc ditch.
Ruzzians playing chess backwards.
Russian doing criminal things that will turn against them in the long run is, of course, unprecedented /s
I don’t think the Russians lost much equipment. What I think actually happened is that Russia got access to Ukrainian military plans – specifically when the offensive was going to start. Ukraine probably also wanted to cross the Dnipr from the west to complement the attacks in the east. This could be the reason why Ukraine is underperforming right now
How about letting 20-30 tanks passing on the other side and then destroy the dam so you drown some of the enemy and trap at your side under artillery a good number of enemies and tanks without ability to withdraw. Knowing the Ukrainian plan would have ended in this kind of plan. Not destroying the dam before the attack. In 2/12 i wonder if the Ukr can cross without resistance when has dried a lot
Blahodatne, Neskoutchne, Makarivka back in Ukraine.
Oha… Good news incoming. Nice!
just have in mind guys, that it is still ‘the easy part’.
Mala Tokmachka, not Nova Tokmachka (the blurb has the wrong name, but the map has the right name).
Fixed, thanks.
Blahodatne has been liberated: https://twitter.com/ukrinform/status/1667818961201688577
Yeah it’s only a small village and I hope the losses for the village aren’t too high, but it’s the first step for a push towards Mariupol. Also there are less defences in this sector of the front. Now is the time for the Ukrainians to cross the Dnipr and capture Enerhodar
They have yet to reach the first defensive line tho and given that they already have problems with these small villages.. it doesn’t seem very promising
I know it’s going to be hard, but many small nations in history have in spite of major defences managed to defeat their neighbouring goliaths. Israel, Croatia and Vietnam are examples of this
and many failed, Iraq and Yugoslavia will not let you lie. I do not think that Russia is now a Goliath. And the question is not whether skolokteo territory will be able to liberate Ukraine until the offensive impulse ends. The question is how well Ukraine will show its strength and whether it will be able to proceed to negotiations in an advantageous position
Russian soldiers who died on the first defensive lign probalbly appreciate to be support by you. No respect for them.
If you look at the fortification maps, it’s not even the first line, it’s just the forward defense area. And crossing a parched reservoir and walking for miles in wet sand is great fun
nobody reasonable expected ‘walk in the park’. OK, we had have a good laugh on the ‘cope pyramids’ (partially justified because it was one of the ‘great Russian cons’ a lot of money was siphoned and pocketed by this). But attacking reinforced line is costly and nobody with a 2 working braincells should expect any ‘lightning success’.
Work on your attention span guys. ->
at best it will be like Kherson, not Kharkiv.
For now we just have got tactical advances and such successes. And there will be casualities (hopefully less than usual 10-15% ecpected), lost equipment (a lot), fck*ups and probably drawbacks, too.
Imagine what kind of lynching and ridicule would get the Eisenhower if the crowd in 44 had a twitter.
The Russian information psychological operation seeks to cast doubt on the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the constant injection of disinformation, a bunch of bots, trolls, and the distraction of the destruction of the 1st column of equipment is presented as a “victory “. But we must remember that this is only the beginning, there will be losses…
but they will not be as colossal as Russian propaganda claims. For example, some sources report the destruction of 30 Leopards), this is complete bullsh1t. The next 4-6 days will show whether the 1st line will be breached or even an approach to the 2nd line of defense is possible
But what the Russians are doing is destructive. Because of such reporting, the Russians completely misjudge the situation, which leads to a tactical disadvantage. So total nonsense…
I think the Russian Ministry of Defense will also stop such reporting at some point.
Yes, it’s destructive, but I don’t think they will change. They are doing this false reporting since Day 1 of the invasion. Vranyo is a big part of the Russian Culture, they cannot change it easily.
Jerome, from where they inform about the village of Blagodatnoye. in the telegram post did not write about the location of the video.
Sorry for bad english “_”
There is a map in the video, showing the advance.
Looks like the 68th Jager Brigade raised the Ukrainian flag at a school in Blahodante village. I notice that this brigade’s icon isn’t showing up on your map.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1667826114834714625