День вторгнення 414 - Підсумок
Підсумковий огляд ситуації з російським вторгненням в Україну за останні 48 годин, станом на 13 квітня 2023 року - 22:00 (за київським часом).
Слобідський фронт
включає територію між річками Оскіл та Айдар
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Активності не зафіксовано.
Сіверський Донець
оглядова карта околиць Слов'янська, Краматорська, Бахмута та Лисичанська
- Російським військам вдалося просунутися в напрямку селища Білогорівка Луганської області з південного сходу. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Білогорівка, Спірне
Бахмутський фронт
включає околиці Бахмута
- Бійці української 113-ї бригади територіальної оборони за підтримки 3-ї танкової бригади штурмують російські позиції в районі населеного пункту Озерянівка. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Богданівка, Хромове, Бахмут, Передтечине
Місто Бахмут
місто Бахмут
- Найманці "Вагнера" вийшли в район головного залізничного вокзалу в Бахмуті. (джерело)
- Захисники української 93-ї механізованої бригади обстріляли найманців "Вагнера" на північ від вулиці Корсунського. (джерело)
- Схоже, що ворог захопив околиці стадіону "Авангард". (джерело)
Авдіївський фронт
включає околиці Авдіївки
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Авдіївка, Північне, Первомайське
Донецький фронт
включає центр і південну частину Донецької області
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Мар'їнка, Побєда, Новомихайлівка
Запорізький фронт
включає Запорізьку область
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Активності не зафіксовано.
Каланчацький фронт
включає лівий берег Дніпра на південь від Херсона та Каховки
- За останні 48 годин ситуація не змінилася.
Повна мапа
Повна оглядова карта поточної ситуації.
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Ця коротка інформація та детальні карти ґрунтуються на наступних джерелах:
Генеральний штаб Збройних сил України, офіційні медіа-канали обласних державних адміністрацій, Міністерства внутрішніх справ України, Служби безпеки України (СБУ) та геолокаційні відеоматеріали.
Ми також дякуємо наступним користувачам Twitter за їх геолокацію та чудову роботу: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya та команді @geoconfirmed.
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There is geolocated footage on the deepstate map telegram of russians west of the railway near Tchaikovsky Lane (http://deepstatemap.live/#16/48.5939/37.9860).
2 day ago, russian cross the railway in this area. They were repulse at the end of the day.
may be its from this event.
The railway is currently (or at least mostly) under Russian control, its a constant back and forth, with counterattacks here and there, the most vicious fighting is taking place there if we can believe both sides. Although it seems as if Russia has the upper hand.
It isn’t. Deepsate says it happened after that, and have changed their map acordingly.
And even if that were the case, one thing is certain: they would try it again. As long as Ukraine does not raise substantially more army, they will make it in the end.
Maps update every other day here. Any confirmed changes will be noted on the 16th at some point.
Sorry, 15th
I hope UKR will withdraw quickly from Bakhmout to bomb all Russians positions inside the city afterwards…. It makes no sense yet to stay there except if there is still a containment strategy or fixing point of Russians in this area to cover counter offensives to Crimea…or Melitopol…
There probably are plans for such offensives, but because of bakhmut they had to be indefinitely postponed. Trying to save bakhmut was a major mistake from the start. Like that’s not even a secret. Everyone said leave. They didn’t listen and now have to suffer the consequences. Too many good soldiers had to die, because of pride. Now every other offensive in other areas is not even worth a try.
This is a political decision by Zelensky personally. The fortress of Bakhmut, you see?
Bakhmut was a sound decision to exhaust russians befor the counteroffensive. Last time around it brought kharkiv and kherson. It is a meat grinder for russia. Russia is stuck in an endless winter now. Bleeding financially and humans and suffering a enormous strategical defeat. Ukraine will be a western state. In question are the borders of it. Russia lost ans is losing more every day.
This is meat grinder for all. However, superior firepower speaks for itself. Look at the data from the last leak.
What data ?
btw, Russia does not have “superior firepower” anymore. They fire more shells (but not that much, since they are lacking ammunition too), but they are less precise and have shorter range than Ukrainian (well, NATO-provided) artillery.
Last 24 Hours Expended: 1,104
Next 24 Hrs: 1,840 155mm HE (PDA32)
So what ?
One thousand shells for an entire huge front. And by the way, watch the videos of the Lancet hunt. This is useful for answering how many guns are in the frontline area
Given the precision of western artillery, 1000 shells/day already does a lot of damage. See Vuhledar. But that’s not the point. You claimed that Russian have superior firepower. Your data does not prove that.
It is enough to read the statements of Ukrainian soldiers in Western newspapers to understand that it is all true
So, your proof is not data, but statements of some soldiers in Western newspapers. Not great, but if you like it… I prefer data, such as FIRMS data showing a significant decrease of artillery fires since last year, and oryx data recording a 3:1 ratio in artillery losses in favor of Ukraine (910 Russian losses vs 345 Ukrainian losses).
Oh, yeah, and some people still believe in the Lostarmour data. So it’s a matter of faith? 🙂 After that, the Oryx data is compromised for me.
And more about the losses. There has been much speculation about possible Russian losses. According to the leaks, the Pentagon estimates them at 35.5k—43.5k KIA. That’s all folks
Oryx is still the best information we have on material losses. And according to the same leak, Ukraine only has 16k KIA. Both numbers seems oddly low. Anyway, no need to discuss further.
I don’t think the numbers are all that low. Those same estimates of KIA are from about the same time the US estimated 100,000-110,000 total UA causalities and around 200,000 RU – I don’t remember if the leak considered Wagner/LPR/DPR in est. of KIA. Combat medicine and armor is a lot more effective now than in previous wars. Some of those UA and RU wounded troops won’t see combat again though.
leaks or fortitude ?
Sorry, I’m not following your meaning. I’m referring to the recent document leaks in the US for estimates of KIA.
Does not include LPR/DPR and Wagner troops.
No. These are the total losses of the Russians
So you can add on several more thousands kia.
No. You are wrong. These are the total losses of the Russians
49,000 burials of russian oldiers were recorded back in the autimn. These numbers are recorded in official documents.
Nothing hits harder than reality. You will be slammed by reality at some point during this year. But when you side with the enemy against your brothers and sisters, a reality check is the least you deserve. You will begin seeling your territories to Poland soon. Mark my words. Ukraine will remain a horror story, tha future generations will tell, of what happens when you sell your soul to the devil
The russian winter offensive fail to obtain any result.
So ukrain Can Do lots of other mistake like that.
The Real mistake, its putin decision to capture bakmut at any cost.
Putin did not make the decision to capture Bakhmut.
It was the decision made by the Wagner high command in cooperation with the Russian high command.
Also. no, Ukraine can’t afford such a major mistakes. They are running on time, russia is not. Russia can go on with the war for a looong time, they even prepared for a scenario of being pushed back massively. They are playing the long game.
wagner high command? his name is putin.
if russian high command had the choice, they will have stop offensive. Prepare a new army of 800k , well training and well equiped. It was possible.
its only because putin want result now , without large mobilisation, that russian are loosing the war like that.
if russian really were playing the long game, they will never do the things like that.
Hell, if they were playing the long game, they wouldn’t have invaded in the first place. They would have continued their strategy of quietly undermining the Ukrainian state. They invaded because they got impatient.
Russian retreated from Cherson so they have to have some kind of victory such as taking Bakhmut. Once that happens the amount of Russian trolls will increase here.
they chose tactical victory against strategic victory. And they still dont have this tactical victory.
The RU president not in ultimate control of the most salient military operation? Make all his administration support someone else’s decisions on that? Who else would align all their efforts? Would he leave such power to someone else who might fail to his own detriment?
Who buys he is gambling like that? So, why shielding him from appearing as the one responsible?
After having failed to overturn the administration of UA, the RU leadership has chosen to escalate by military stubbornness instead of diplomatic power projection, full mobilisation, nuclear escalation, or generous offensives (like taking the lead in the grain export deal), supported by making the whole world believe it’s going to work out fine for a “looong” time.
Too narrow, too exposed.
Fully agree. Stubbornly holding Bakhmut at any cost caused UA to lose their best units and best warriors. And at the end they are loosing Bakhmut anyway.
Seems to me they didn’t have any better choices confronted with that assault.
That depends on the perspective… If Bachmuth hadn’t been defended, the Russians would certainly be in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk by now. But these two cities are too important for the Ukraine to be destroyed by the Russians. Bachmuth serves as a buffer for these two cities.
In addition, 3 of the 4 most important roads that it takes to conquer the entire Donbass go through Bachmuth.
Maybe like you wrote. Anyway this war is quite weird and the strategy of both sides is not really understandable. One big meat grinder with no clear vision and outcome. 414 days, heavy human loses and both sides are almost at the same place as on 2014.
Strategically, Bachmuth is important for both sides
russian just have to forbiden the use of bakmut by ukrain side. This strategic goal is reach since months.