День вторгнення 386 - Підсумок
Підсумковий огляд ситуації з російським вторгненням в Україну за останні 48 годин, станом на 16 березня 2023 року - 22:00 (за київським часом).
Слобідський фронт
включає територію між річками Оскіл та Айдар
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Гряниківка, Дворічна
Сіверський Донець
оглядова карта околиць Слов'янська, Краматорська, Бахмута та Лисичанська
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Кузьмине, Кремінна, Білогорівка, Верхньокам'янське, Спірне
Бахмутський фронт
включає околиці Бахмута
- Найманці "Вагнера" захопили невелике селище Залізнянське. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Оріхово-Василівка, Григорівка, Богданівка, Ягідне, Хромове, Бахмут, Іванівське,
Місто Бахмут
місто Бахмут
- Найманці "Вагнера" просунулися ближче до Хромового. (джерело)
- Бої тривають у північній та південній частинах міста.
Авдіївський фронт
включає околиці Авдіївки
- Український Генштаб повідомив про відбиття російської атаки в напрямку Степового, підтвердивши попередні чутки про втрату Красногорівки.
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Новокалинове, Степове, Кам'янка, Авдіївка, Північне, Нетайлове, Первомайське, Невельське
Донецький фронт
включає центр і південну частину Донецької області
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Мар'їнка, Побєда, Новомихайлівка, Водяне, Вугледар
Запорізький фронт
включає Запорізьку область
- Українські силовики провели силову розвідку на південь від Новоданилівки. Вони втратили три машини і відступили на вихідні позиції. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Активності не зафіксовано.
Каланчацький фронт
включає лівий берег Дніпра на південь від Херсона та Каховки
- За останні 48 годин ситуація не змінилася.
Повна мапа
Повна оглядова карта поточної ситуації.
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Генеральний штаб Збройних сил України, офіційні медіа-канали обласних державних адміністрацій, Міністерства внутрішніх справ України, Служби безпеки України (СБУ), геолокаційні відеоматеріали та прес-релізи Збройних сил Росії, самопроголошених "ДНР" та "ЛНР".
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Love coming to the comment section and reading all the cope comments
What happened around Avdiivka? It looks really bad…
Quite possibly forces were pulled from Avdiivka to shore up Bakhmut.
An unsound decision, in my opinion.
No realistic : learn from the beginning of the invasion…. RuSSians succeed to penetrate until Kiev suburbs and then got destroyed…. It will be the same mistakes…. Rendez vous in three weeks comrade 😉
Is this a strategy to feint weakness and let Russian overrun lot of defenses lines to hit their lines behind and cut them afterwards with counter offensives ? or is the UKR army in real bad conditions ?
There’s a new Washington Post piece that suggests UA forces on the frontline now are largely inexperienced due to turnover caused by high casualties. The West (Berlin) estimates losses for UA are around 120k vs 200k for RU. UA officials have stubbornly resisted advise of US to gtfo of Bakhmut since January. 1/2
There’s also growing resentment in UA for the West which has clearly waited too long to commit the resources UA needs to win the fight. Most of the recent armor commitments are seen internally only as symbolic gestures. The war has also exposed weakness in the US weapons manufacturing and procurement processes that will take time to overcome. Time UA appear to be paying for in blood. 2/2
It’s a much needed but very sobering piece. The realities of this war are grim for both sides. The idea that UA is inflicting 5:1 or 7:1 losses may be true in certain engagements in certain sectors on certain days, but more broadly, the artillery of RU is eroding this advantage. Check Militaryland’s Twitter page for a link to the article.
On the plus side, the article does mention Kyiv is training and preparing soldiers for a counteroffensive without exposing them to ongoing frontline fighting. These soldiers may be better equipped, more motivated, and have improved unit cohesion. But the mood on the frontlines currently is something to the effect of “I’ll believe it when I see it.” For their sake, I hope we see it soon.
The Washington Post is a known pro-Kremlin news outlet. The commander who gave the interview to WP has been demoted and – supposedly – wrote a resignation letter. What would you expect of an incompetent commander who allowed 100% casualty rate in his unit? And he is probably a Russian agent. According to Zelensky, the undisputed military strategist, the Ukrainian army is doing just splendidly
The WP is in no way pro – kremlin.
Quire a highly regaurded newspaper.
Indeed, it was meant as a joke I think.
That’s how I took it too.
It is a rag
Some rags are better than others.
Depending on the perspective from which you look at it. At the moment, it actually looks like Wagner is leaving Bakhmut instead of advancing further into the city. The movement is clearly to the northwest and thus away from Bakhmut. If the Ukrainians really hold the city, which is
what it looks like at the moment, it would be one of Russia’s biggest military defeats in the post-World War II era
In this case, Putin will blame Prigozhin and his Wagner group, but in the end, Gerasimov also failed completely and proved his incompetence.
Vuledar is the best example, Wagner is not there, so the Russian army is completely responsible. Vuledar is a village where it takes 10 minutes to walk from the entrance to the exit. The number of houses can be counted on one hand, but nevertheless…
… the Russians there are also totally wearing themselves out. And here Gerasimov is the sole commander.
A lot of ammunition and weapons does not replace stupidity… Ukrainians are smart peasants, while Russians have probably been steadily drinking their brains out.
Have you seen the elevation map in that area?
He Say that vulhedar have less than 5 houses. Just a troll.
It feels a bit like Russia has changed objectives and has given up on capturing Bahmut and Kostjantjnjivka and instead trying to get to Kramatorsk and Slovjansk. It is more advantageous to the Russians to just continously shell Bahmut rather than capturing it. Ukrainian resistance is very costly for the Russians, so they are trying to force a retreat
The west should massively supply incendiary munition and phosphorous bombs. They are cruel, but the reality is that Ukraine is facing human waves and the more Russian soldiers get immobilised, the faster the Russian forces will be weakened. Poland is doing the right thing by sending planes, but I think the EU states needs to seriously ramp up munition production and military spending
Bombing Bakhmut won’t do any good in the end either. The city has already been razed to the ground. If the Russians continue to move westward, then Bakhmut will no longer be worth anything to the Ukrainians.
There are almost no more cover possibilities and the city is no longer usable as a base. The Ukrainians’ goal is to concentrate Russian forces in one place…
and keep them there as long as possible. In this way, the Ukrainians
could inflict as many casualties on the Russians as possible. Because
their resources are also limited. In the end, Russia looks stupid
because the effort of mobilization was a total waste of resources. 80%
of these soldiers fell in Bakhmut after a few days.But they didn’t make much progress, so it didn’t help them at all
Because without the 50,000 mobilized victims, they would not be much further.
The Russians are currently cleaning their country from unnecessary citizens (prisoners, unemployed, minorities). This is basically a very clever way to save on social costs.
It will kill troops defending it.
They just go far away to their support and AA défense. And make the lign longer. Not thé best strategic choice.
Siversk saillant IS more important.
Good question, but difficult to answer.
Many recent announcements (such as the creation of 17 new brigades) or lack of announcement (after the last two Ramstein meetings) could mean the UKR army is in real bad condition … or that it’s a deliberate feint to make Russia believe they are winning.
Only time will tell.
Poor condition is perhaps a bit of an exaggeration. Ukraine is just unlucky that they are fighting against an opponent who has hoarded his equipment and weapons for 50 years and now throws everything at the country.
Every country, except China and the USA, would have to rely on the help of other countries (weapons supplies).
And then the fact that Ukraine is not in NATO, adds to all the resentment
Personally, i believe Ukraine is suffering for the win, which they have to do, to win. Their troops on the frontline buy those being constituted the time for an offensive, while Russia is playing into this strategy by attacking, instead of consolidating its lines. Ukraine may lose Bakhmut and adiivka, but it may win the whole south for it.
The west is not giving them enough stuff to win it easy.
The south is now heavily fortified. The Russians haven’t been sitting idly.
My money is on Ukraine, but we shall see, spring is coming.
Yeah this is very concerning, the last recon by force didn’t go well for Ukraine
Ukraines counteroffensive may get stuck more or less like Russia’s. All I am saying is, that Russia’s more or less failed offensive is a perfect starting point for it. Ukraine showed some costly success against well fortified positions and Russia’s best in Kherson. The ammunition problem is my greatest concern.
Well, the Russians launched their alleged offensive in the worst season of the year. Frostbitten soldiers, in the snow and mud the vehicles make poor progress and the nights are very long and dark. Poorly maintained weapons often do not work in winter, due to thermal contraction.
With Western weapons, the Ukrainians could actually push Russia back.
Due to the restraint and storage of these NATO weapons, there is much more of them than most believe. Just vehicles (all varieties) I estimate a number of 600…. And that should be enough for now…
Let me add, that if this stays a war of attrition, I do believe that Russia will be in deep shit in 2024. Russia’s ammunition stocks will be depleted, it will have hugh budget problems and western ammunition production will be up. The artillery advantage should be gone for good. China will be the only Hope.
In Bakhmut Front, Wagner have been going out of town more than they have been going in for the last couple of days. It looks like they are now moving north-west… It seems that the Ukrainians’ plan to defend the city to the bitter end is working. The 93rd certainly played a part in Wagner slowly moving away from the city.