Invasion Day 384 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 14th March 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Russian forces captured Hryanykivka settlement, based on the available footage. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Hryanykivka, Dvorichna
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Nevske, Chervonopopivka, Dibrova, Kreminna, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Berestove, Vasyukivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- The enemy reached the outskirts of Ivanivske, but Ukrainian defenders of 5th Assault Brigade drove them away. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Bakhmut, Khromove, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba, Mayorsk
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Wagner mercenaries entered Tsvetmet Zavod and captured the first buildings. (source)
- The enemy advanced by another few meters in the southern Bakhmut. (source)
- Russian Wagner mercenaries advanced in the south and reached Korsunskogo street. Soldiers of Ukrainian Aidar battalion pushed the enemy away from the street, but the situation remains tense. (source)
- Ukrainian soldiers of 3rd Battalion of 92nd Mechanized Brigade recaptured trenches north-west of Khromove, and fought off a subsequent counter-attack. (source)
- An officer of 93rd Mechanized Brigade stated that Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut are running low on ammo and basically have no shells to hit the enemy in occupied parts of the city. (source)
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Ukrainian General Staff reported a repelled enemy attack towards Netailove, indicating a Russian advance towards the settlement.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Niu-York, Novokalynove, Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Sieverne, Pervomaisk, Nevelske, Netailove
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
UKR MOD reports a Russian attack was repelled near Stepove. Does it mean Krasnohorivka was captured?
Report from Ukraine said so last night: Vesele and part of Krasnohorivka are controlled by the Russians. However, they didn’t give any visual confirmation.
Why will Russia keep this war going for another 2 years? Because a Russia a human life is worth nothing. If you do not belong to the elite, then you are just a piece of dirt. It is not even thought about that the future of this country ends bitterly, poorly, isolated and in the civil war. As long as this elite does not go to war itself, they will never end it.
Why should they, when they can make their own stupid people victims.
It is time for ordinary Russian citizens to finally stand up and fight for a just future. It is foolish to believe that doing nothing is the better way. Those who do nothing will sooner or later also end up as cannon fodder in Ukraine.
The time of revolution has come, for a more just future of the Russian people. Whoever does not rebel is pathetic, stupid and a poor good-for-nothing. For the elite, you are not citizens of your own country, but trailing, stupid, dirty bait whose only right is to shit on the doorstep.
Oh, I actually tend to agree (with one caveat). The issue is way more generic and not specific to Russia. The entire world is in chaos (or on a fast track towards it) and if you – Russian, Ukrainian, American – do not belong to the elite you’re a piece of dirt for them. This is universal, that’s how the world works today.
If the Russians rebel and make Oscar winner Navalny their president, chances are they will bring only misery upon themselves because they will be in a worse position than before and they won’t have any help or sympathy from the outside. Only if everybody ‘rebels’, then sits together and decides what’s next, we can move forward and sooner or later it will happen. Don’t know how, don’t know when.
No real hope of a good, rather than hard life, or economic prosperity for ordinary russian citizens
Zsar putin and his henchmen have stolen the wealth of Russia.
Alot of money invested through the City of London finance.
Yes, obviously. Do you think it’s any different in the UK or anywhere else in what’s called the civilized world? The Square Mile and whoever makes their play there actually cares about ordinary citizens? And good vs hard life is a relative thing. Moscow is doing just fine I can assure you
Global capitalism is the enemy as far as i am concerned.
Moscow and Petrograd are very different to rural Russia.
The UK has is far from perfect but I will not fall out a window for calling out the lies of my government.
Different cultures. Russians traditionally do not trust their government, but when they go on the streets things are really really bad. In Europe people like to protest, but the question rrmains does protesting change/achieve anything of substance?
Yes – in some countries were governments either listen to their citizens or get voted out.
Being able to protest is part of a democracy, being allowed to show dissent.
Although some global corporatione are more powerful than goveenments.
The UK has “generally” avoided bloodshed on the streets apart from Ireland/NI.
Protest also let of steam.
Military economist Marcus Keupp thinks Russia will have lost the war by october, source. He says Russia losses are unsustainable, e.g. concerning Bakhmut. Its military economy can not sustain this at all, e.g. would need to produce 1500 (100 pre war) tanks per year. What Russia can draw out of stocks is completly obsolete. Russia is impaling itself in Bakhmut.
Winter is here for Russia.
Ok maybe but hundreds of economists said Russia would be broke by the end of 2022.
No, i have followed the economical issue very closly, because i have some knowledge in that field. Many/most thought that Russias economy would collapse in the duoble digits in 2022, that had allready changed by spring/sommer.
Nobody ever said Russia will be broke (the state) in 2022. Everybody knew they had to many reserves for that and that this will only change once oil sanctions are on.
The budget is suffering pretty bad right now. The current spending will be completly unsustainable by the end of this year. I call that “broke” by 2024 in a way. But there are always ugly ways for a state budget to fight on, if the will is there.
If it was true every time what all so-called military experts told about the whole year, both countries would have already won the war 3 times, lost it 4 times.Russia would have dropped 4 nuclear bombs and Ukraine would have recaptured Crimea 3 times.The best part is that you’ve never heard of most of the experts before.Regularly checking Militaryland’s maps and comments doesn’t make you an expert
Possibly, but it is still a very informative interview and the person who gave tit is not a random person from the internet.
I recommend reading it, though use a translator if you do not understand German.
The Russian economy isn’t doing well, and it’s definitely not on a great trajectory. That’s correct. However, the Kremlin has a lot of oligarch friends, and they can likely access a lot of money with low effort. Their stockpiles are ridiculous, that’s correct (such as tanks from WW2), but it’s very possible that if necessary, they will get more help from Belarus, North Korea, Iran, or Syria… 1/
This won’t help Russia win, but it will certainly allow them to not lose completely by let’s say, the end of this year. That will obviously depend on Western supplies to UKR.
No way Russia can produce 1500 tanks a year, so far they’re at 240 and they are pushing their only tank factory to the limits.
However i would suspect that Russian tank losses will lower (not drastically but still) as the war progress since Russia would likely pass more time on the defensive if they ran too much out of stock (and their T-90 fleet becomes larger)
He did not define, what he meant by lost.
1500 tanks a year, about 4 per day, looks like a decent guess.
Concerning the stocks:
1) they are obsolete
2) they also take away factory resources to make them combat ready
3) only something like every third tank can be made combat ready.
I wonder what actions are being taken in the Kremlin to fix this, they would need to increase sixfold their production to keep up with the demands, how much would the facilities for such a monstruous production even cost if Russia could afford it?
Producing 1000 new tanks a year is probably very, very far away and i have read nothing that they even started seriously in that direction. I also doubt very much that they will even come close to that number with tanks out of stocks added. The quantity and quality of russias tanks is decreasing rapidly right now. Thats a given for me.
So are they crossing their fingers the war will end before their stockpile will? Ever since the war started i refuse to believe Russia is doing so poorly, from a global superpower 30 years ago to this… how is it possible to fall this hard?
Don’t blame Russia…. The fault was in the West, because we believed it for 30 years that Russia was a military superpower. Russia is very good at manipulating others.
At the same time, we should have known… Russia has won nothing in all its wars after WW2 except scorched earth. Afghanistan, Chechnya (1st war), Syria, Ukraine….
The West was good at believing it…
If Russia has the will to fight on, it will be able to do so, just with much less tanks. They will adapt. They also hope for china or the west slowing down. Germany hoped for some wonder until Berlin was conquered… Russia didn´t only manipulate us, they fall for their own Illusions aswell.
Ukraining losses are also unsustainable.
Source? Combining Oryx losses with known western deliveries actually paints a different picture. Ukraines hardware is growing. If you point at manpower, that is sustainable for a long, long time, if a society has the will for it. And that holds true for any losses you can imagine. France lost 1500 dead soldiers per day in the first world war, same population sieze as ukraine.
I wouldn’t compare WW1 to modern days, people were raging nationalists everyone and each one of them back then, countries mobilized up to 25% of their own population as if it was nothing meanwhile in Ukraine they’re struggling to draft more than 3% of their population.
The modern world has a much different way to see war compared to back then.
Listen.
If Ruzzia was firing 20,000 shells per day and only 1% hit their target that is about 200kia and say 400wia per day.
80% of casualties in war are by artillary.
And ruzzia out guns ukrainians by about 5 to 1
Western sources are under reporting or not reporting accurate numbers
Discussed many times. War isn’t just a question of firing as many artillery shells as possible.
Russians did that in april-june 2022: 60 – 80 000 shells/days outguning Ukrainians at least 10:1. And even then, Russians got more losses, then Ukrainians destroyed the Russian army a few months later.
I bit delusional methinks.
Question to the maps: There are a lot of small crosses spread over the maps, similar to the symbol for hospitals but with brown color. For example day 384 bakhmut city a little bit north of the position where the MIG monument was. What do they mean?
It’s a FIRMS overlay, showing location of fires. It can be either shelling or MLRS launches.
Wagner allegedly took Zaliznianske – https://t.me/RVvoenkor/40601
If i was Russia i’d go for Niu-York just for the memes, btw do we have any reliable information on how many troops Russia mobilized so far? Or if mobiks are being used at all on the frontline?
It’s pretty much all mobik fodder on the frontline now, along with whichever regulars survived or recovered from their wounds
Ukraine are literally sending kids and elderly people into Bakhmut as actual cannon fodder just to buy time for their spring offensive.
Proof? Or it`s another bullshit from orcs?
A few week ago, there was a video of Prigozhin in Bakhmut surrounded by 3 POWs – 1 looking very old and with a long beard and 2 looking very young (one of whom could not speak and was literally shaking, poor guy). That’s what I saw. I am not drawing conclusions.
I saw the video too. Pure Prigojin BS, as usual.
Not bs. Just taking 3 guys and make a generality.
When he wants to brag, he shows some bodies and says they are Ukrainian. When he wants ammunition, he shows some bodies and says they are Russian. In that video, he shows 3 random guys and says they are POWs. Whatever.
All his videos are stagged, PR propaganda, aka bullshit
Good Propaganda IS not full bullshit .
Its not hard for prigozine to find 2 pow conscript with less than 20 Years olds. And in territorial def or in certain volunter units, you have fighter with 50 year.
I think thé older have more than 60 and fight since 2008.
Its thé same at russian side.
Yes, that’s possible. As it is possible that the 3 guys were just civilians and not POW.
My point is the video is staged and certainly doesn’t prove Sheld’s claim.
You have to assume/believe first that those two were Ukrainians, (as far as I know they did not talk in the video) and second that they were indeed POWs. Knowing what we know now of Prigozhin, we can say that he likes to and is very good at, manipulating information.
If I recall correctly, one of the young guys did speak, the other one was shaking like a leaf. I don’t know if they were real POWs but they were not actors.
Zero information value besides that you prefer to present views without giving the evidence it is based on. What you will get to read here is basically what you write yourselves.
Are you content with that?
Stop with this useless comments, fakes and without any sources !
UKR commandment knows exactly what is doing, learning from the mistakes ( Lysychansk and Soverdonetsk, Azovstal..) let them fix all Wagner forces in one point, focus all the world attention in this direction, and counter attack in right time ! ( I think I two weeks , Bakhmut will be completely free and Wagner dead)
I don’t believe there will be a massive counter attack in 2 weeks, and if there is, it won’t be around Bakhmut. At the moment, Ukrainians buy time and force Wagner /VDV into difficult urban fights, but they know Bakhmut can no longer be kept forever.
I feel like there is no information really available, which is surely a part of Russia’s war strategy
I would call it a fact that Mobiks are at the frontline. There is a enormous amount of videos from complaining Russians and Ukrainian POWs confirming that.
The estimates of the numbers i read were from 200k to 400k. Most of them are thought to be at least close to the frontline, e.g. as reserves. The current conscription cycle from autumn are still in training, arriving soon, another ca. 100k.
So i would argue, that the Mobiks are all in use or casualties. My best guesstimate are 150k casualties since october. So Russia has about 150k more troops around Ukraine, than in September and a further 100k are in the pipeline for spring. I am expecting a new mobilization in spring again. Probably after the next conscript cycle is burocraticly done.
Conscripts are not necessarily sent to war after the cycle. In fact, the
contracts from the conscripts prohibit mobilization after the service.
Now these contracts will certainly be somewhat relaxed, but still you
are protected from this as a conscript in Russia. They are mobilized
only later, when their contracts have long since expired.
I don’t really believe yet that Russia will be able to mobilize more
than 100,000 new forces again. Because in the meantime it is getting
around in Russia that in Ukraine many do not survive and only serve as
cannon fodder.
definitelly but also a mess which is a natural state of the that kind of autocracy, it’s not a problem, it is a feature and a part of system security.
Mobilisation has never ended and is continous (though on much less scale ofc) add to that hidden mobilisation (which slowed drasticly but still trickles a little).I doubt that RF itself knows the real numbers (not estimates and on paper).
according to rumors, many Z-volunteers, although they get into Wagner, they pay better there. But they don’t take many. Wagner has plenty to choose from. On the other hand, many Z-volunteers are men 40-50 years old
according to rumors, few mobilized near Lisichansk
no reliable information
older sources taken as source cuz couldn’t find new
around 318k mobilized officially taking wagner in then maybe around ~368k
318k -> 82k in the operational zone
82k -> 41k in active service
the rest in training
from wagners ~50k who knows, this might be 20-30k in active service and the rest in training although their training lasts 1 month, so it might be all 50k in service
No way 50K in Wagner now. Much less due to losses.
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