Invasion Day 348 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 6th February 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No reports for this area during the past 48 hours.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Ukrainian General Staff reported a repelled Russian attack in the area of Shypylivka settlement north of Bilohorivka. It seems Ukrainian troops advanced towards the mentioned settlement.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Kreminna, Shypylivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vasyukivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Wagner mercenaries pushed towards Krasna Hora and captured the formed Soviet military base near the town. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Blahodatne, Paraskoviivka, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Fighting continues on the outskirts of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- The marines of 36th Marine Brigade repelled a Russian attack in the vicinity of Avdiivka. (source)
- Ukrainian General Staff reported a repulsed Russian attack towards Sieverne, meaning the enemy managed to advance by at least a few meters north of Vodyane.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Vesele, Kamyanka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- The enemy attempted to gain new grounds in the vicinity of Vuhledar, but entered a prepared minefield. The attack failed, and Russian troops retreated. (source)
- Russian troops advanced in Marinka and reached the industry complex located on the south-western outskirts. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
Looking for an interactive map? We got you covered. Visit our original Deployment map.
If you would like to use our maps in your project, video or any other media, please visit Invasion maps page for more information.
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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Live UA Reports fighting near Bohoyavlenka northwest of Vuldehar. I imagine that could just mean they attacked to the west of Vuldehar but never seen it mentioned before.
That’s very odd indeed. But fighting did take place near other settlements that have been mentioned for the first time, namely Fedorivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Vyyimka and Chasiv Yar.
As always, don’t trust liveuamap.It’s not “near” Bohoyavlenka” but “in the direction of”. Jerome did explain the difference. See Defmon3’s report to have an accurate vision of where the attack did happen.
It said near but i assumed already it meant towards
Ya the map shows the contact line west of Vuldehar as half way to Bohoyavenka so they did mean “near” not “in the direction of”.
Russia has captured Zaliznianske and has reached the outskirts of Chasiv Yar https://liveuamap.com/
Not looking good for Bakhmut
It says that the UAF repelled RU attacks near Chasiv Yar. It’s not the same.
In direction od Chasiv Yar to be precise 😉 ru troops are basically moving slowly along the channel.
Bakhmut situation od getting worse and worse, city is almost encircled.
Evil is winning at the moment, but it’s far from the end of the war
For serious work on soldiers KIA based on open source data, see: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
They record verified death of Russian soldiers from public sources. They don’t pretend this is a estimate of all Russian casualties, not even close.
What’s saddening though is how you can see most KIAs are from Oblasts with significant minorities. It’s a silent ethnic cleansing in Russia
It’s pretty normal, soldiers often come from impoverished areas, i doubt Shoigu is throwing his own countrymen into the slaughterhouse on purpose (Shoigu is a Tuvan native)
You’re right and nobody’s pretending these to be the real casualty figures. But it gives a baseline. I wish we had the same data for Ukraine, collected according to the same methodology, but we don’t. And I suspect there is a reason for that.
Russian losses are rising. According to the Ukrainian Mod, more than 1000 Russians were killed yesterday, 14 tanks and 28 IFV/APC were destroyed.
It seems that Russia is in full Zerg mode. For little territorial gain so far.
The worse the situation on the ground, the greater the exaggeration of enemy losses.
So the situation of Russia must be very bad, since their claim of Ukrainian losses are ridiculously exaggerated (they are even physically impossible).
On the other hand, since Ukrainian claims are plausible (compare them to Oryx numbers, there is only a x2 or x3 factor ), does that mean their situation is good?
they didn’t manage to destroy even one batmobile. Yet. Quoting the classic ‘Time will tell’.
Official UKR estimates put the number of RU deaths at 135,000 RUS. Add the wounded and you get a figure that is much greater than the number of Russian soldiers who took part in the invasion since Feb (roughly 180,000). Plausible? Not to me.
we will probably never see the real numbers. The properly (and rigidly) excercised research based on obituaries, funeral evidence and such shown ~14k dead. From the RU army alone. Nobody really counts the militia’s loses, PMC’s (there is more of them than Wagner), volunteers (this is a dark number in general) and other no-humans (like convicts). I’d bet that the gross of the loses —>
–> are there and totalling KIA/WIA/MIA to the 100k is more or less accurate as much as it can be.
When you add the initial troops (180 000), the reinforcement before September 2022 (50-100 000, maybe more) and the mobilisation (officially 300 000, in reality no one knows), mother Russia provided enough sons to the meat grinder, so that 135000 Russian KIA are plausible.
135,000 total losses is plausible.
135,000 Russian KIA is not. The Russian military in Ukraine would be a skeleton crew if it had suffered that level of fatalities.
It doesn’t take many losses to render combat units ineffective.
135 000 KIA is plausible. As I said, the Russians got enough reinforcement to sustain such a level of losses.
My guess is that the real number is around 80-100 000 KIA and more than 150 000 WIA, in other words a total of 200-300 000 Russian casualties.
No, it isn’t plausible.
If the Russians had suffered 200,000 – 300,000 casualties their lines would have collapsed and they would have been routed back to the international border by now.
While they got a lot of bodies through the partial mobilization, they didn’t draft enough to sustain those kind of losses.
Nobody knows how many russian were mobilized (maybe not even Putin). Official number is 300k, but we know they mobilized people regardless of military experience or age. There are potentially millions of russian to be mobilized, the problem is more training/equipement (and political acceptance)
So yeah, it is possible they suffered 200-300 000 losses and still have the numbers in Ukraine.
This is an argument from ignorance and mostly just an excuse to rely on no other evidence than that concocted by one’s own brain.
There is no basis to think this other than “I believe it to be so.”
I’m sorry, but you are the one who is using an argument from ignorance. Your argument is to say that it’s impossible that Russian suffered 200-300k losses and still have enough troops in Ukraine. But you don’t know how many troops were sent there.
So please, tell me: how many troops did Russia send to Ukraine, including everything (mobiks, LPR/DPR, rosgardia, 3rd corps etc) ?
One last thing (we could argue on this topic for hours): many people say Ukrainian suffered around 100k casualties (30-40k KIA, other wounded).
Russian must have suffered x2 to x4 that number (assuming the human losses are roughly proportional to the equipment losses recorded by oryx).
So an estimate of 200-300k losses for Russians is coherent with verifiable data.
There is, in fact, no law of nature saying that this “must” be so.
No, in fact, that “estimate” is completely contradicted with anything remotely close to verifiable data.
It’s not the law of nature, it’s the law of war. If you suffer 3x more material losses than the enemy, it’s probable than your human losses are in the same range. Maybe a little less (2x), maybe a little more (4x).
Every verifiable data show that Russia suffer way more material losses, thus casualties, than Ukraine, and that’s logical (they attack fortified positions almost everyday).
That doesn’t even slightly make sense.
Do you have any proof that could validate your claim? Like real life occurrences from modern times or military data that could verify it.
Let me tell you something factual tho.
Russia has a firepower advantage of 1:7 according to Ukraine.
Now tell me how logical it is that Russia despite this massive advantage has more casualties then Ukraine?
1) Russia does no longer have a 7:1 firepower advantage.
2) Even when they really had that kind of advantage (in May-June 2022) they completely exhaust themself in assaults. Russian lost so much they could no longer advance after early July.
3) Russian are attacking fortified positions, so they suffer many more losses than the defenders. See what is happening at Vulhedar for example.
The reinforcements before sept. 2022 were well below 50,000 -100,000 and probably in the thousands only (hence the Kharkiv humiliation) and the overwhelming majority of mobilized soldiers are still in the rear. Your numbers just don’t add up.
Before September 2022, Russia committed to Ukrains
1) all its available military personnel (including the instructors, and some guards of the strategic/nuclear forces) (20k – 60k)
2) BARS reservists (~30k)
3) an unknown number of volunteers (5k ?)
4) the Wagner group (10-20k)
That represents at least 50k, and probably way more.
1/2
You are so well connected Tristan. May I ask for a source?
It comes from things I have read last spring/summer, so I don’t have sources for everything
1) IIRC, ISW estimated in july or august that additional 40 BTG had been deployed in Ukraine so 1/4 to 1/3 of the inital forces maybe less
2) BARS district south is supposed to have 38 000 reservists
3) I just know there were some volunteers, I don’t know how many
4) various sources, cf wikipedia
you are missing a gray number or ‘insurgents’ from L/DP/R and their own source of volunteers present there even before Feb. 2022 and hidden RU assets in Donbas.
Between Murz and Girkin (and others) roughly estimate of total strenght of these proxies is between 60 to 150 k (yeah, these numbers are wild and unreliable but reliable are nowhere to be found). There is general consensus among –>
–> RU sources (definitely not ‘pro-Western’ in any way) that these formations took horrible loses which are not counted in any way. They were also suffering disproportional amount of late losses which further mess the calculus.
So there is a lot missing there.
Yeah, that, and the 3rd army corps, and many other things like rosgardia. The point is, Russia had sent many more men to fight in Ukraine that the initial 180 000.
the overwhelming majority of mobilized soldiers are still in the rear
We don’t know that. We don’t even know how many were mobilized. Some say 200k, Others say 500k or even 1.2 million. So how many were comitted to Ukraine and are already on the front line? 100k ? 200k ? more ? The point is: it is possible, even probable, that Russians got enough reinforcement to sustain such losses.2/2
No, that’s pure fantasy. You won’t find a reliable Western source claiming that Russia mobilized 500K soldiers or more.
well, nobody really (including RU MoD) actually knows. The mobilisation has never been called out and is still ongoing slowly.
Well no, mobilization is not a spontaneous phenomenon. RU MoD knows how many have been called up. The process is not without flaws but it is organized and supervised. There are also documented cases when wrongly mobilized soldiers have been sent back.
oh boy… this is Russia. ‘Nobody knows shit’. I suppose that the amount of ‘corruption as a feature’ is (understable) somewhat missing for you.
the reason the RU losses are higher than what the official RU invasion force was is because 1.) They have mobilized even more 2.) DPR and LPR are counted as losses though RU doesn’t count them but force mobilize them 3.) Wagner forces that aren’t counted by RU either
That’s an exageration, probably 300-400 deaths yesterday and probably 50k russian deaths at best in the entire conflict.
Propaganda exists on both sides, Ukraine was run like Russia 2.0 until like 8 years ago.
It is probably slightly higher than the truth, but not so much. They announced a number of tanks /armored vehicles that is compatible with the visually-confirmed losses (multiplied by a factor x1.5 to x2 to take into account non-recorded losses).
And concerning the total russian deaths, 50k is way too low. 60-70k is a bare minimum, my guess is something like 80k-100k.
You know that Personal can run away from their vehicle if they are hit?
Material losses does not mean manpower losses. You would need to go full propagandist to assume that for every tank destroyed the whole crew died.
And even then if there are about 4K tanks destroyed (which is clearly exaggerated) then there would be 20k deaths. But that does not corroborate to reality at all.
12k deaths*
And for 7k armoured vehicles with let’s assume 4 crew
28k deaths.
So 40k deaths caused by completely destroyed vehicles, but that cannot be true, since Ukraine themselves would contradict themselves.
So your numbers would only make sense if the vehicles were completely destroyed with their whole crew dying in the process. Which is just wrong.
You know that soldiers can also die outside of a vehicule ? In fact, that’s the majority of losses.
Material losses give you a rough estimate of the ratio of losses between Ukrainians an Russians: more or less, 3:1 in favor of Ukrainians.
That’s way too high, the US estimates Ukrainians and Russians have suffered over 100k casualties each, with Russia clocking at over 150k in January (note, this is casualties not just deaths, for both sides), a 1.5:1 ratio in favour of Ukraine is more plausible, although it’s far more likely it’s 1:1
“the US estimates Ukrainians and Russians have suffered over 100k casualties” That’s just a quote from Gen Milley. As I said before, Gen Milley can be wrong, or lie, or just gave an order of magnitude.
As always, look at the evidence, they show a 3:1 ratio in favor of ukraine (at least for material losses).
1 of 2: Strategic notes: Russias state deficit enormous in January again (this has been going on since late autumn), 25 billion dollars and oil product sanctions weren´t included yet. The Russian national wealth fund will melt like ice in the sun. It will be extremly interesting to see if Russia can borrow money in necessary quantitys internaly. The last try in early autum wasn´t promissing and
2 of 2: now things look even uglier. I have a feeling that Russian oligarchs, which have the wealth to borrow, ain´t that dumb or happy with the war. I will burn my economics degree if Russia is not running into deep budget troubles this year and the outlook for this continuing into 2024 is really, really bad.
Winter is here for Russia.
I wouldn’t be so sure, Putin tied the oligarchs to himself so badly that if he falls they fall too, remember when they made that video with all the Russian high ranking officials recognizing the Donbass republics? That was done so that people would think this war is those Oligarchs’ war as well, Putin made sure they would be forced to lend him support.
No need putin fall. And system will survive to putin.
It seems incredible, but I have been reading the comments since the beginning of the sanctions in 2022
As i said, it will be highly interessting to see how the “internal borrowing” card will play out. Bank of Russia planned two rounds in early autumn and dropped the second round, after the first wasn´t well demanded. I think Putin will have to force the Oligarchs/Companys into buying bonds, but we will see.
not necessarily. States are not people, companies or families. States *can* produce a ‘value’ of the thin air. This is devastating for the long(er) run if the state is excluded from the loan-exchange market with substantial fluidity but can be done. And they are and will do it. –>
–> Do not make a mistake – devastation of the RU economy and future at least for the generation if not more was for the Putin ‘price worth paying’ for potential derailing Western dominance and putting an end to ‘Western Order’ giving the Russia (that means: him or his successor) a ‘new brave world’ to devaur.
You are hinting at the good old money printing trick. Well that may come along the line. First Russia will try to borrow and cut spending on none military stuff further and last it may try that devestating trick, but not this year.
Russia may very well follow Putin into utter ruin, that is a real possibility, but it is still far away.
they already did this from the very beginning. ‘Cooking the books’ is the only thing which actually was done pretty well and competent by RU Central Bank (among others).
Hm, i wouldn´t be so sure about that. A lot of data was withheld, that is common knowledge. I haven´t seen anything that would point to the Bank of Russia having cooked the books. And believe me, there are many people watching these days. I have no reason to doubt the released macro economic data. Espacially since it doesn´t look good at all. For now i would put that into the realm of ukrainian
-> propaganda. I think that the technocrats in Moscow know what they are doing, and they know that cooking the books is a recipe for desaster. They are trying safe what they can, not destroy it even more.
Prepare to burn you imaginary economics degree, because every major economist predicts growth of the Russian economy. The IMF predics 0.3% growth. For last year they predicted 15% contraction it turned out to be about 2%, so we can expect higher growth than 0.3%. Further their FOREX reserves are growing close to the highest they have ever been. And see what they are cooking with BRICS…
No, actually IMF is the only major source predicting growth in Russia this year, e.g. Bank of Russia expects 2% contraction. FOREX is interessting concerning currency stability. I am talking about the budget deficit, not the economy. And BRICS, what, you think Indian investors will buy Russian war bonds?
The IMF also lists Iran as having 2 Trillion USD nominal GDP (close to Italy’s GDP) because they use the official exchange rate of the rial to convert in USD, that would translate into 23k USD per capita (4k higher than Poland’s).
It’s stupid, if the IMF says something about the GDP of some country it is not to be trusted.
IMF is obligated to honour (and they does that in general) the official data. Which has no sense in case of Russia, China or any of such kind entity. The most healthy part of RU economy is a barter one (and there it does not like peachy), illegal course of exchange are also a good indicators. The rest is purely artificial – but this is a state, not a household. It can stay that way… Read more »
And, if you are interested, the 1x % forcasts were build around a financial collapse, which was brilliantly averted by the Bank of Russia and HUGH energy revenues with high government spending. The energy revenues are history and the government spending will keep the economy more or less afloat, as long as Russia can support that deficit.
You’re thinking of Russia as a normal capitalist country – this is wrong. Everything in Russia belongs to Putin. If Mr. Ivan Oligarch doesn’t want to lend money to Putin, then Putin will throw him out of a window and take the money. This situation can’t last forever, but it may last longer than you think.
Oh, i have no doubt that Russia can do this on some level very, very long. I am just pointing to the fact that state financing will get interessting this year and very interessting next year. I am german, i know that Russia can follow Putin into utter desaster over years and years and years.
unfortunatelly it can go for quite substantial time. Decades even. Most of the RU population won’t really feel anything from the sanctions (they will feel the impact of war, that is something different) because they have nothing as they have had nothing before, so ‘what’s the change?’. RU, besides centers is a very poor and underdeveloped country. The privileged on the other hand, will do –>
–> somewhat fine because they are relative minority (and smuggling works in small scale) and they are, well: provileged. The blob in the middle will be squashed really badly (as pensioners and other dependend for state support) but it wasn’t that big in the 1st place and a lot of them just left.
If you want to continue this discussion, please do so on the forums.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/37711
These Russian soldiers have allegedly crossed the Zherebets in the direction of Liman. Not sure if this can be confirmed.
Sounds bit fake.
Sound like typical ruSSian bullshit
Unlikely, they probably did cross the Zherebets a bit northern than that (as Ukraine said they repelled some attacks near Hrekivka few days ago) but i doubt they also crossed it south of Zarichne towards Lyman.
Ukrainian servicemembers standing in front of town sign say Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast still under Ukrainian control: Blog Video via Twitter.
For the last three days, Russian sources have been saying UKR army left Bilohorivka. Turns out it was wrong.
Typical psych ops because Russia lost ground north of the settlement.