Invasion Day 296 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 16th December 2022 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Svatove direction
- Ukrainian defenders repelled Russian attacks in the area of Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka and Ploschanka settlement.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Another Russian attempt to regain lost positions in the area of Chervonopopivka was repulsed.
- Russian forces tried, likely through the forest, to advance in the direction of Hryhorivka, but didn’t succeed.
- Russians attacked Ukrainian positions near Verkhnyokamyanske, without success.
- The enemy attempted to break through Ukrainian lines and advance towards Vyimka. The attack was repelled.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Wagner’s mercenaries released a photo confirming previous rumors regarding the capture of Yakovlivka. The settlement is under Russian control.
- Heavy fighting remains active in Soledar, Bakhmutske and in the area of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces again tried to enter Klischiivka south of Bakhmut, but without success.
- Russian attacks in the area of Andriivka and Kurdyumivka didn’t succeed.
- The enemy captured Ukrainian fortified positions north-west of Ozaryanivka, on the other side of the canal. Confirming previous reports about their presence on the other side.
- Russian troops attempted to advance towards Druzhba, but didn’t succeed.
Bakhmut City NEW
the city of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade has been relocated to reinforce the defense of Bakhmut. (source)
- The situation on the ground changes every hour, but it seems Russians did not cross the water body near the industrial zone (as reported two days ago).
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- The enemy conducted a recon by force in the area of Oleksandropil. After a brief skirmish, the group retreated.
- Russian attack towards Vesele was repelled.
- Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Nevelske, but didn’t succeed.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Fighting continues in Marinka, the enemy managed to advance by a few meters towards the center.
- Russian attacks in the vicinity of Pobieda and Novomykhailivka were repelled.
Correction: Shevchenko settlement seems to be under Russian control at this moment.
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
and regarding Bakhmut, Perun just dropped another video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fqHERDXVpk
Interesting „attack from the north“ media campaign by Ukraine. I am smelling deceit. Looks like frozen winter conditions will not come in December to the east. I guess January will show if Ukraine can still move the frontline. Zalushny said the mobilization worked.
as if ukraine needed another mobilization.
aren’t they already on 1million men? are the casualties to high? what would another wave do?
they are even more untrained then the already mobilized men of ukraine.
for me it just smells like they need more cannon fodder for places like bakhmut and potentially prepare a offensive themselves where they need some fresh meat as shock units…
He talked about the Russian mobilization. Ukraine’s 4th wave is done and he says he doesn‘t need more. Ukraine can concentrate on training and equipping those mobilized. Russia still has to sort out the shit show, just like Ukraine had to at the start of the war. Ukrainian cannon fodder days were spring and early summer. Russia’s started in autumn.
You show your true colours when you call humans, meat!
Indeed, as it’s been well reported when Ukr. mobilized – as at beginning of invasion, moreover also well publicized when training of volunteers and conscripts was complete, i.e. late July — no coincidence that Ukr. commenced 2 offensives that month, both that were completely ultimately successful.
When Putin ships in troops without any training or much less amount of it, then human meat applies.
Mr. Ukr. trained volunteers and conscripts for 6 month’s till late July. which is traditional minimum period for training, I’m refer to WW1 and WW2 standards. That’s far more training, Russian conscripts have received — by the way. So if you wish to use the word, cannon-fodder, when Putin ships Russian men into the war — without any training at all or little, that’s what that phrase applies to.
How bad is for the Ukrainians that the Russians (i.e. PMC Wagner) have captured Yakovlivka?
Yakovlivka’s capture gives the Russians the possibility to attack Soledar from the east in addition to the south. It does not mean Soledar’s fall is imminent though. Russia’s advance continues to be very slow and gains can easily be reversed.
Interesting. Ukrainian sources have not commented on Yakovlivka’s apparent withdrawal and liveuamap still shows it as UKR-held.
liveuamap is famously unreliable, deepstatemap is much more trustworthy. Y. was taken, still it does not mean that R. immediately shall run forward.
In Bahmut, battles reportedly near Pervomaiski pereulok and Federa maksimenko street. It’s still the eastern edge of town. Let’s see how this develops.
bakhmut will probably take a longer time than severdonetsk, since it’s heavier fortified and even more important.
both sides will sacrifice a lot of lives during this battle… i mean… they already have.
wouldn’t surprise me if this town will be known as the graveyard of ukraine when the war is over… or even now…
to call this place ”hell on earth” is kind of a understatement.
I expect certain person denying obvious horrible losses of RU forces shall continue commenting:
Obvious evidence of horrible losses, is Putin’s draft – ordered right at the end of Summer’s battles, I especially emphasize — 200K with next to no training, ordered right into battle. Any person with brain, knows no army does that — unless suffering desperate personnel shortage.
Obviously this supports an assessment, Putin’s army is short on trained personnel, moreover it’s logical to expect — when trained personnel due to losses, receive untrained personnel as replacement and those are thrown right on bat into battle.
Then, it’s quite fair to assess — average quality of RU troops in Ukr. have suffered, thus that reduced quality of RU personnel – improves Ukr. chances.
Russian losses till now :
100.000 KIA + 200.000 wounded =
300.000 losses os the best russian forces
Source?
That’s likely true.
Infact last info on russian forces report that they are mixing the mobilised personnel with the exeperieced ones
Logical sure – mix the few remaining experienced you’ve still have got with the hordes of inexperienced you’ve got.
In WW1 and WW2, death-toll among inexperienced was ever several times higher than among experienced, in both wars they ever blended inexperienced among experienced.
That means, regardless Russia’s inexperienced that likely outnumber experienced 3 to 1, are going to suffer horribly.
“200K with next to no training”
The Russians called up reservists that have been in the armed forces before, it is not a general mobilisation of green conscripts, Unlike Ukraine. they are getting further training now in Russia and Belarus. Reports from Hospitals from around Bakmut show most of the injuries are from shelling, not direct gunfire Russia has an 8 to 1 advantage in artilliary.
Infact last info on russian forces report that they are mixing the mobilised personnel with the exeperieced ones
The numbers of ucrainian soldiers injured is so high that is not a case that the last american aid package will include ambulances, field hospitals and more medical instruments
Ukrainian troops get their wounded to hospital. The Russians leave their wounded behind to bleed out.
All the pro-Russian comments aside, it is true that mobilised personnel is mixed with experienced ones and that the mobilised people (mostly) have basic military experience. Russia also has much more (albeit less accurate) artillery than the Ukrainians. It’s bad.
The fact the Russians have reached Bahmut is our failure. We’re bad allies and need to do more for Ukraine & deliver new weapons.
NATO should help Ukraine fortify its northern border with Belarus, finally send the patriot missiles and a bigger supply of generators. Ukraine should finally get advanced American drones, atacms missiles (to destroy the Crimea bridge once and for all) and new systems, whatever is necessary to inflict greater losses on the Russians
Any arty ratio given as 8:1 (pieces, shots?) is meaningless as soon as differences in precision exist. And that’s the case here. So absolute hit numbers have to be compared to prove any kind of superiority.
according to some ukrainian artillerymen the amount of russian artillery attacks has decreased, but the precision has increased, indicating that russia started using their guided shells.
the superiority is still present. the fact that about 8 out of 10 (or so i think it was could be 7 or 9 of 10) ukrainian soldiers come to the hospital because of fragment damage is a strong indicator for that.
You are probably right that bulk of Ukr. losses are – enemy artillery fire, despite relative shelter of trenches — while RU forces repeatedly attack, inevitably forced to cross the no-mans-land between RU trenches and Ukr. trenches, inevitably resulting in probably very heavy RU losses for each attack wave.
Mind, this doesn’t mean — RU losses aren’t most likely far far greater.
Not sure you’re comprehending what greater accuracy of Ukr. artillery now largely Western means — it means, when RU troops move on attack, Ukr. artillery can walk the fire over their head with extreme murderous precision.
That probably means every time RU troops attack cross the no-mans land, few ever get cross to Ukr. lines — thus few Ukr. killed with RU bullets.
Largely western artillery is a stretch. Ukraine still has a lot of Soviet style artillery. Ukraine probably has a precision advantage but still at considerable less shells shot. Ammunition will be and is the bottle neck for both sides. Sooner or later both sides will have to manage the amounts that are being produced when stocks are depleted.
Ukr. ran largely out of 152mm ammo — explaining artillery supremacy RU had from late April to early July, hence rush to ship NATO guns to Ukr. – however successful Ukr. offensive near Kharkiv, Ukr. captured large RU ammo dumps — RU forces failed to destroy.
Guns without ammo, are useless – however with capture of ammo stores, Ukr. has had it’s 152mm again active again since late summer.
We neither know the NUMBER of ruZzian losses caused by UA arty nor the NUMBER of UA losses caused by RU arty. So we still can’t infer current superioty of the arty of any of both the parties.
Wrong — we’re talking about people, that did 6 month’s of military service with ‘light training’ years ago, without refresher training.
Years without refresher — means these troops, effectively are ‘untrained’ thrown into combat, hence enormous casualties are logical expectation.
Russia has had enormous casualties among artillery forces – since Ukr. started to receive NATO guns in numbers.
sure mate, judging by what we’ve seen I’d be a perfect reservist in the eyes of the allmighty Russian Army. I am 50, have pain in back, last time I’ve had a gun in my hand 2 decades ago and never been particularly good with that, still – technically I am ensign in the log. bat. of mech inf. in reserve. At least my cancer is kinda under control which makes me better than some… Read more »
there’s a truth in this fallacy – general RU losses are probably horrific and much higher than even Ukr estimates (e.g. they cannot include late losses) however, most of the losses are at the same time often ‘hurtless’ for the public. Who really cares about ‘Donbas militias’ (assuming from their own accounts they were almost decimated in some cases), PMCs of all kinds and flawours ->
-> from professional (and mostly long gone) forces, to truly nazi militants like Rusish, or current convicts/mobik crowd? Until there will be an substantial influx of cargo 200 in Moscow, nobody cares. It has no political substance with enough gravitas to e.g. force Putin’s hand in any way. –>
(2) So, expect even more ‘zerg rush’ brilliance while the roughly half of the current mobilised are prepared to somewhat decent (in the RUssian standards of ‘decent’) shape. Still they will be of lower quality than the forces which started this ghastly, ill-conceived shitshow.
Ukr. has more battle experienced troops than it had at the beginning of the war, exact opposite of what’s happened to invading RU forces.
Many neglect to recall, Ukr. complete the training of volunteers and conscripted at begging of war, around end of July. And since then, many of those have become battle experienced to boot.
Quality standard of Ukr. troops has risen and as their numbers have.
(one of the comments in my tree is still in moderation)
What my point was is the assymetry of losses – Ukrainian ones are precious while Russian’s are just a manure thrown on the barn’s gate (from the New Rasputin’s bunker POV). Keep throwing enough, at some point some will stick. And generally – managing the expectations (which the latest interviews with the Zaluzny addressed).
The argument I don’t get is (roughly): RU conscripts are untrained cannon fodder while UKR conscripts are efficient, battle ready soldiers. It smacks of propaganda, no?
Well that is not true, obviously. The difference is, that Ukrainian mobilization started earlier, so that there was more time to learn for Ukrainian conscripts, they are way more motivated, the infantry is better equipped (now) and they are better lead, e.g. not thrown into battle as cannon fodder (anymore).
True, UKR mobilization started earlier. As far as I know, less than 100,000 RU conscripts are on the frontlines. About 200,000 still undergo training in Russia or DPR/LPR. That’s at least 2 months of training for the latter.
Ukr. conscripts and volunteers — received 6 month’s training.
Putin’s conscripts receive lots lots less amount of training.
That’s why — people say, Putin is shipping, cannon fodder.
It’s difference between people, enough trained to have a chance vs. those that, haven’t learned nearly enough to probably have got an one.
It’s not a propaganda to call Putin’s conscripts cannon fodder.
that wasn’t my ‘argument’ in any way. Conscripts are conscripts, though Ukr. ones were and are much better motivated – an important factor, however it might be sometimes detrimental and, indeed it was sometimes at the beginning on the Ukr. side. There were some accounts about the territorials’ posts completely wiped out because they simply did not know how and when retreat properly. –>
–> That was in Feb/March. Since then a lot changed.
My argument was that Ukr. losess have political gravitas while Russian ones still does not. Putin may kill a million convicts or mobics from Tuva or Siberia or even Kursk and nobody will care. They may have problematic value in combat, but enough crowd put into small space will eventually overwhelm defense. On the other hand –>
–>(2) do not expect such troops to keep their post in any order in -15’C in trenches on artillery plowed shitland. Even if they would have good kits (which they don’t).
Point taken, although I am not convinced about about the political gravitas of losses on the UKR side (e.g. Bakhmut meatgrinder)
it simply means that they are felt, while in Ru. they (losses) don’t. It does not mean that Ukr. will “bend the knee” because of Bakhmut (or even, lets fantasise, Kiev – though we are long past that point if there was such one). Bakhmut should be also understood as a timing factor – it limits the Ukr. possibilities of attack on other axis, while giving R. opportunity to entrench elsewhere.
I think the losses are going to be felt in Russia.
Hence, it’s reasonably to expect terrible bloodbath for these troops.
Now these Ukr. are experienced.
There are not many young people to call up in Moscow and SPB. All the smart ones got out.
Mr. pay attention — Ukr. commenced training of volunteers and conscripts in February – Ukr. launches 2 successful offensives late July, 6 months’ later — clear then Ukr. army has significant man-power-boost.
The difference is in training period – Ukr. gave 6 month’s training, that’ enough training for effective soldiering.
Putin’s conscripts, receive less than a month.
That’s cannon fodder.
US General Milley talked about 100k plus casualties on both sides lately. That is putting both in the same ball park. Ukraine losses probably peaked in the spring, early summer Donbas campaign, when they had to make up artillery disadvantages with manpower, cannon fodder. That certainly changed, but Ukraine’s offensives also do not come for free. Since September we see a Russian bloodbath.
nah, the best informed “sources” like Douglas talks about ca. 800k or Ukr. KIA/MIA/WIA . Which means that these biolabs were serious bussiness cuz every active Ukr. line personnel was killed at least twice.
And ofc. Polish Legion, that one including naked women riding on black americans with deadly mosquitos. Go figure.
Mr. Ukr. fight was 100% defensive fight — right up to late July. It was clear, Ukr. army was fighting a holding action with it’s experienced forces — while waiting for volunteers and conscripts that were mobilized in February, to complete training.
–I really don’t think Ukr. has suffered anywhere near 100K – unless we also count, Ukr. civilian casualties. Milley was probably doing that.
Late July, Ukr. commences 2 ultimately successful major advances — it’s obviously not coincident that both commence, when 6 month’s minimum training period of conscripts and volunteers is complete; as it’s clear Ukr. army at that point received significant man-power boost, enabling both offensives. However I protest your use of phrase, cannon fodder, I truly doubt Ukr. losses were terrible ever.
TDF forces where thrown into the fight without much or any training, that is a fact. Ukraine did the same what russia does now. Throw some, train some. Milley talked about around 40k additional civilian deaths. I doubt that he had a reason to lie. The kia/wia ratio is better for ukraine. Ukraine had ugly losses. History will show.
Correction: Killed and wounded civilians. Listen, ukraine was out gunned, had no ammo and all that cpuld stop russian advances was holding on stubbornly to their trenches. If you want to believe ukraine didn’t bleed in the donbas defense, do it.
Mr. they held trenches that had been maintained since 2014 — with an army that had fought continuously all that time, not all the time with ‘same troops’ as troops were rotated — there were new additions every year, not just to replace losses, also to replace those who — had complete service contract.
Truth is, I don’t care what you believe, Ukr. had large pool of veterans, to recall.
Thus contrary to what you erroneously maintain, Ukr. fought in the Donbas with combat veterans only. This was a holding action, meanwhile other volunteers who weren’t combat veterans plus untrained conscripts — received training.
Ukr. veteran army, in defensive role, certainly suffered nothing like the scale of losses — attacking RU forces did.
Again, I really don’t car what you believe.
That’s not true — I really dislike it when people cloth misinformation in ‘it’s a fact’ when it’s certainly not the case, i.e. it’s actually bs.
Interessting, quite obviously you didn´t research this. You are spreading missinformation if you state that TDF forces weren´t thrown at the front without much or any training. If you look, you will find the evidence. I really dislike when people do not research and believe the state the truth and say others misinform.