State of the 3 day special operation to denazify ukraine
Day No 197:
- 20000 held in a strangle move in Kherson, a successful attack threatening supply lines to the izyum bridgehead, enormous losses reported and the donbass offensive is going nowhere.
- Meanwhile russian precission ammunition is running low, more and more sovjet stuff is showing up since the good stuff is depleted, and fresh personnel consists of badly trained volunteers and convicts.
- On the other hand ukraines mobilization isn´t finished and the west isn´t finished sending weapons and training personnel.
So what are russias military options, when going on like this will only make things worse?
1) It can take a deffensive stance and retreat to well defendable positions. That could include:
- a fighting retreat in Kherson to try and safe as many man and probably less equipment as it can and try to make ukraine bleed for Kherson city like ukraine did so many times (to the heros of Mariopol).
- give up on the Izyum bridgehead and possibly retreat behind the oskil river
All of this would help in the short and mid term, but it doesn´t change the big trend.
2.) It can start general mobilization and martial law.
This would help in the mid and long term. Especially the lack of personnel would be solved and this may tip the scale in russias favor in the long run.
Now it is pretty obvious that neither retreat nor general mobilization are well liked in the Kremlin, though retreat seems to be an option, since it was done befor.
Forcast:
Russia will retreat again, but only when it is more than obvious that it has to retreat. At that moment, it just may be to late, and a collapse could happen. Even if russia retreats in time, it will not change the military trend.
What do you guys think? Did i overlook something?
Yes, I agree. I think russia needs to retreat somewhere, because if they strengthen their defense in Izyum direction, the will have to weaken it in other directions. And then Ukraine will probably shift their advance to the weakened defense.
General mobilization would be a huge problem for russia, the economy will collapse and many people will try to leave russia.
I think retreat is the only possibility, but the propaganda will of course tell, that this is their plan, they didn't have to, a sign of good wil, etc.
Well, the Oksil retreat happened.
So you are saying, that it is easier for Putin to stay in power, when he keeps retreating instead of mobilizing? I always thought, that a defeat in ukraine is just as dangerous for him.
Of course further retreats are a problem and a defeat would be the biggest problem. But I think general mobilization could be very dangerous. First of all, a huge amount of russians will try to leave the country, they wouldn't like this decision (most of the russian don't want to go to the front), the economy would have enormous problems and the new units will have very low to no motivation and wouldn't be able to fight. They just would be complete cannon fodder and putin would have big problems.
I think putin will further try to minimize the scale of the war and try to at least advance a bit in the east, this means probably they have to weaken the defense somewhere...
The Oskil line is pretty much breached allready and Kherson is a mess for russia.
It seems like you are right, and all russia will try, is keep defending (more or less) and trying to freeze/slow the conflict as much as possible, then i can see only two possible lines they may hold.
The 23.2. line plus or minus the land bridge to Crimea. Everything on the right denjpr bank and north of that line will be lost, probably even this year.
Add that russia just started paying hard on the economical side (lower oil prices and no gas income) and that this will only get worse when the european oil embargo kicks in (december).
I don´t see how russia will keep this up without a major change in the kremlin within the next year.
The Oskil line is pretty much breached allready and Kherson is a mess for russia.
It seems like you are right, and all russia will try, is keep defending (more or less) and trying to freeze/slow the conflict as much as possible, then i can see only two possible lines they may hold.
The 23.2. line plus or minus the land bridge to Crimea. Everything on the right denjpr bank and north of that line will be lost, probably even this year.
Add that russia just started paying hard on the economical side (lower oil prices and no gas income) and that this will only get worse when the european oil embargo kicks in (december).
I don´t see how russia will keep this up without a major change in the kremlin within the next year.
Correction: Russia is going down the mobilization and escalation path. Will be interesting to see how much effective combat power russia will be able to draw from that and which influence it will have on the battlefield. Many Analysts think that mobilization will not solve the russian problems.