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Russian monthly losses as reportet by MoD of Ukraine

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(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 
  February* März* April* Mai Juni Juli August Total 1.9.22  
Personel 5710 10252 7538 7200 5050 5280 7320 48350 Personel
Tanks 198 394 434 335 216 191 229 1997 Tanks
APV 846 812 813 872 393 275 334 4345 APV
Artillery 77 201 173 208 137 136 183 1115 Artillery
MRLS 24 64 63 56 39 13 28 287 MRLS
AA 7 41 32 14 11 12 36 153 AA
Aircrafts 29 94 69 16 9 6 11 234 Aircrafts
Helicopters 29 82 44 20 11 4 15 205 Helicopters
UAV 3 89 153 274 126 91 115 851 UAV
cruise missiles 6 39 37 38 23 31 22 196 cruise missiles
ships 2 4 2 5 2 0 0 15 ships
vehicles 365 824 607 494 320 302 327 3239 vehicles
special equipment 3 16 13 17 12 21 22 104 special equipment

*Estimates based on the view early reports.

Based on:

https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/

For triangulation:

Equipment:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Personel:

https://timenote.info/en/person/list?order=4&category_id=320&start=7700

E.g. Tanks: Oryx 1190

My view:

Western agencies reguarly estimate russian manpower losses at about half those reported by Ukraine. That would put russians killed at around 25000 and casualties at about 75000. It is obvious that russia has manpower problems, i personally would guess, that the truth is anywhere between 50% and ukrainian numbers, may be 65%.

The truth about tanks etc. is probably anywhere between Oryx and Ukraines numbers.

Planes are sure to be overestimated a lot, due to the nature of aircombat. Very often it is unkown if a plane was actually hit or downed. The british MoD guessed that 55 russian aircraft where downed.

If you watch and analyse the numbers a lot, like i did, it is pretty obvious that the numbers from feb. to apr. are pretty wild, as was the fight. If you watch ukrainians in action today, you see them actually taking fotos for validation. I beliebve that the ukrainian numbers are pretty good and consitent from mai on and can be used to meassure intensity of the fighting and triangulate russian losses.

 
Posted : September 28, 2022 16:53
Comis and Cossack reacted
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 
Juli August September Total 1.10.22
Personel 5280 7320 11260 59610
Tanks 191 229 357 2354
APV 275 334 604 4949
Artillery 136 183 282 1397
MRLS 13 28 49 336
AA 12 36 23 176
Aircrafts 6 11 30 264
Helicopters 4 15 21 226
UAV

91

115 158 1009
cruise missiles 31 22 50 246
ships 0 0 0 15
vehicles 302 327 547 3786
special equipment 21 22 27 131

 

The ukrainian counteroffensive brought a serious uptick in russian casulties. And this will probably only be getting worse, with the untrained drafted russians being thrown into combat. The insuing bloodbath for russian soldiers may either break the russian army or the Kremlin.

Right now the russian army looks broken allready.

 
Posted : October 4, 2022 13:41
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 
  July August September October  
Personel 5280 7320 11260 12860 Personel
Tanks 191 229 357 344 Tanks
APV 275 334 604 552 APV
Artillery 136 183 282 333 Artillery
MRLS 13 28 49 47 MRLS
AA 12 36 23 21 AA
Aircrafts 6 11 30 12 Aircrafts
Helicopters 4 15 21 31 Helicopters
UAV 91 115 158 406 UAV
cruise missiles 31 22 50 151 cruise missiles
ships 0 0 0 1 ships
vehicles 302 327 547 357 vehicles
special equipment 21 22 27 23 special equipment

 

October brought new maximums in personel, artillery, UAVs and cruise missiles.

September and october brought losses for russia comparable to march. Hard to see how russia could keep this up for long.

 

 
Posted : November 1, 2022 21:56
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 
  July August September October November  
Personnel 5280 7320 11260 12860 16970 Personnel
Tanks 191 229 357 344 217 Tanks
APV 275 334 604 552 376 APV
Artillery 136 183 282 333 174 Artillery
MRLS 13 28 49 47 12 MRLS
AA 12 36 23 21 13 AA
Aircrafts 6 11 30 12 4 Aircrafts
Helicopters 4 15 21 31 4 Helicopters
UAV 91 115 158 406 147 UAV
cruise missiles 31 22 50 151 134 cruise missiles
ships 0 0 0 1 0 ships
vehicles 302 327 547 357 298 vehicles
special equipment 21 22 27 23 9 special equipment

 

November is the by far worst month concerning losses in personnel in only 30 days. There is also a considerable down tick in equipment lost. Russia is basicly exchanging bodys for equipment.

Russia also obviously stopped using aircrafts and helicopters in dangerous zones. There is a no fly zone in place for those.

Ukraine reports shooting down of 285 cruise missiles in october and november compared to only 246 in the 7 months befor. It is obvious that Russia can not keep this up for long.

 
Posted : December 1, 2022 12:43
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 

 

  February March April May June July August September October November December   2022 monthly*
Personnel 5710 10252 7538 7200 5050 5280 7320 11260 12860 16970 17280 Personnel 106720 10101
Tanks 198 394 434 335 216 191 229 357 344 217 116 Tanks 3031 283
APV 846 812 813 872 393 275 334 604 552 376 207 APV 6084 524
Artillery 77 201 173 208 137 136 183 282 333 174 117 Artillery 2021 194
MRLS 24 64 63 56 39 13 28 49 47 12 28 MRLS 423 40
AA 7 41 32 14 11 12 36 23 21 13 3 AA 213 21
Aircrafts 29 94 69 16 9 6 11 30 12 4 3 Aircrafts 283 25
Helicopters 29 82 44 20 11 4 15 21 31 4 8 Helicopters 269 24
UAV 3 89 153 274 126 91 115 158 406 147 230 UAV 1792 179
cruise missiles 6 39 37 38 23 31 22 50 151 134 192 cruise missiles 723 72
ships 2 4 2 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 ships 16 1
vehicles 365 824 607 494 320 302 327 547 357 298 279 vehicles 4720 436
special equipment 3 16 13 17 12 21 22 27 23 9 18 special equipment 181 18

* March to December

December

Ground:

  • a repeat of maximum personnel losses from November
  • new lows in most ground based heavy equipment (Tanks, APVs, Artillery, AA)
  • Russian mobilization is successfully exchanging bodys for euqipment

Air:

  • a new record in downed cruise missiles
  • manned air vehicles stay mostly out of combat
  • the cruise missile campaign will have to slow down soon

General:

  • December was very muddy
  • The consolidated frontlines after the retreat from "forever" Kherson are stuck in a muddy stalemate
  • In many ways December feels like July, which was followed up by a late summer/early autumn offensive. January will show if Ukraine retains momentum in a winter offensive or if russia succeeds in stoping the ukrainian momentum.

 

 
Posted : January 2, 2023 12:11
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 

Russian losses 2022 documented by oryx and compared to those by MoD Ukraine,

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

Russia 06.01.23       06.01.23    
oryx oryx Oryx*   MoD UA MoD UA Oryx* Oryx/MoD
Tanks 1607 Tanks   Tanks 3064 1607 52,45%
Armoured Fighting Vehicles 751 APV   APV 6124 3172 51,80%
Infantry Fighting Vehicles 1889 APV   Artillery 2059 455 22,10%
Armoured Personnel Carriers 283 APV   MRLS 431 167 38,75%
Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles 43 vehicles   AA 215 124 57,67%
Infantry Mobility Vehicles 176 vehicles   Aircrafts 285 68 23,86%
Command Posts And Communications Stations 217 APV   Helicopters 272 74 27,21%
Engineering Vehicles And Equipment 262 special equipment   UAV 1844 159 8,62%
Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems 32 APV   cruise missiles 723    
Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment 91 vehicles   ships 16 12 75,00%
Towed Artillery 151 Artillery   vehicles 4797 2483 51,76%
Self-Propelled Artillery 304 Artillery   special equipment 182 304 167,03%
Multiple Rocket Launchers 167 MRLS          
Anti-Aircraft Guns 16 AA          
Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns 23 AA          
Surface-To-Air Missile Systems 85 AA          
Radars 20 special equipment          
Jammers And Deception Systems 22 special equipment          
Aircraft 68 Aircrafts          
Helicopters 74 Helicopters          
Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles 6 UAV          
Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles 153 UAV          
Naval Ships 12 ships          
Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps 2173 vehicles          

Oryx*: Feel free to give me a heads up on how to aggregate correctly.

 
Posted : January 6, 2023 16:41
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 

Oryx 2022 comparisson of Russian and Ukrainian losses.

  06.01.23    
  Russia Ukraine UA/RU
Tanks 1607 441 27,44%
Armoured Fighting Vehicles 751 250 33,29%
Infantry Fighting Vehicles 1889 441 23,35%
Armoured Personnel Carriers 283 214 75,62%
Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles 43 35 81,40%
Infantry Mobility Vehicles 176 245 139,20%
Command Posts And Communications Stations 217 8 3,69%
Engineering Vehicles And Equipment 262 37 14,12%
Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems 32 21 65,63%
Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment 91 21 23,08%
Towed Artillery 151 81 53,64%
Self-Propelled Artillery 304 97 31,91%
Multiple Rocket Launchers 167 34 20,36%
Anti-Aircraft Guns 16 4 25,00%
Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns 23 4 17,39%
Surface-To-Air Missile Systems 85 4 4,71%
Radars 20 41 205,00%
Jammers And Deception Systems 22 1 4,55%
Aircraft 68 55 80,88%
Helicopters 74 28 37,84%
Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles 6 14 233,33%
Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles 153 45 29,41%
Naval Ships 12 23 191,67%
Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps 2173 479 22,04%

 

 
Posted : January 6, 2023 17:01
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 
  July August September October November December January  
Personnel 5280 7320 11260 12860 16970 17280 21700 Personnel
Tanks 191 229 357 344 217 116 178 Tanks
APV 275 334 604 552 376 207 298 APV
Artillery 136 183 282 333 174 117 186 Artillery
MRLS 13 28 49 47 12 28 35 MRLS
AA 12 36 23 21 13 3 8 AA
Aircrafts 6 11 30 12 4 3 10 Aircrafts
Helicopters 4 15 21 31 4 8 15 Helicopters
UAV 91 115 158 406 147 230 159 UAV
cruise missiles 31 22 50 151 134 192 73 cruise missiles
ships 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 ships
vehicles 302 327 547 357 298 279 341 vehicles
special equipment 21 22 27 23 9 18 19 special equipment

 

January

Ground:

  • a new maximum in personnel losses
  • comparably low numbers of heavy equipment

Air:

  • the russian cruise missiles campaign has slowed down considerably
  • more manned air vehicles are reported downed

General:

  • temperatures stayed relatively warm (around 0 degrees Celsius)
  • Russia made some advances around Bakhmut
  • Ukrainian autumn momentum was stopped
 
Posted : February 1, 2023 14:13
 Ren
(@ren)
Posts: 11
 

@max-beckhaus It would be interesting to update the analysis of Kyivindependent.com (01.09.2022) of how many tanks and which types Rus can make operational. Do you have suggestions?

Ren

 
Posted : February 14, 2023 12:33
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 

@ren There was a very interessting update just latly by some military anlysts institute concering operational Russian Tanks stating out of the top of my head: The amount of operational Tanks shrank for Russia considerably (something like 30%?) and the quota of "old" tanks grew also considerably (from 10% to 40%?). They also stated that Ukraines amount of tanks actually grew.

How many tanks russia can make operational? Well, thats anyonce guess, but i read that being able to to make every third tank out of long storage operational would be a good guess. Now even that would still be a incredibly big number in the case of Russia. So the real question for any forseeable future is:

How fast can Russia produce new tanks and get stored once operational? Some thoughts on that question:

1) This year of war Russia lost Tanks  a lot quicker than it can replenish them and the quality sank.

2) There are signs that the quality of new Tanks sinks, e.g. old optics have to be used.

3) It is generally unclear for me if Russia can/could upscale tank production any more soon. It is highly doubtful though, since upscaling industrial production at that complexity level is usually measured in years, once you are at 24/7 shifts. And the later only works if you can upscale input considerably, even that is usually very difficult to keep up for long, e.g. once stocks are empty 24/7 shifts tend to run into logistic problems. Factor also in, that Russia is not a great industrial power anymore, but does have a hugh defense sector and it has limited access to international markets and the labor market is very empty.

4) Getting old Tanks operational will get slower, since you obviously start with those in the best shape.

 
Posted : February 17, 2023 10:11
Comis reacted
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 

IISS Tanks estimates:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-likely-lost-more-than-half-of-its-tanks-in-ukraine-estimates-show-c23dabc2

So, IISS estimates 2000 - 2300 tanks lost, letz take 2150, and currently operational estimated at 1800. Russia started the war with estimated 3300 tanks. 5000 tanks are estimated to be in storage albeit in a questionable state.

So that would mean Russia replenished about 650 tanks in the last year.

 
Posted : February 17, 2023 11:26
 Ren
(@ren)
Posts: 11
 

@max-beckhaus Let me add a few points IISS made: Russia struggles to replace modern tanks, not producing or reactivating enough. Of T72B and T72B3M 50% lost. Russian current armour at the front is about half it was at the start of the war (H.Boyd, IISS press conference). That would mean less than 1800, if he meant tanks. Anyway, Ben Wallace (Min Def UK) said Rus lacks the mechanized power for breakthrough.

 
Posted : February 17, 2023 11:56
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 
July August September October November December January February   monthly* last 12 months
5280 7320 11260 12860 16970 17280 21700 21470 Personnel 12015 144180
191 229 357 344 217 116 178 186 Tanks 266 3197
275 334 604 552 376 207 298 256 APV 483 5792
136 183 282 333 174 117 186 186 Artillery 193 2316
13 28 49 47 12 28 35 21 MRLS 38 455
12 36 23 21 13 3 8 26 AA 20 240
6 11 30 12 4 3 10 7 Aircrafts 23 271
4 15 21 31 4 8 15 4 Helicopters 22 259
91 115 158 406 147 230 159 104 UAV 171 2052
31 22 50 151 134 192 73 77 cruise missiles 72 867
0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 ships 1 16
302 327 547 357 298 279 341 196 vehicles 408 4892
21 22 27 23 9 18 19 30 special equipment 19 227

*monthly average since March 2022

February

  • a new maximum in personnel losses

  • interesting up tick in AA

  • cruise missiles at about half of the December maximum

 
Posted : March 1, 2023 14:46
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 
  July August September October November December January February March  
Personnel 5280 7320 11260 12860 16970 17280 21700 21470 24100 Personnel
Tanks 191 229 357 344 217 116 178 186 221 Tanks
APV 275 334 604 552 376 207 298 256 343 APV
Artillery 136 183 282 333 174 117 186 186 290 Artillery
MRLS 13 28 49 47 12 28 35 21 48 MRLS
AA 12 36 23 21 13 3 8 26 32 AA
Aircrafts 6 11 30 12 4 3 10 7 6 Aircrafts
Helicopters 4 15 21 31 4 8 15 4 3 Helicopters
UAV 91 115 158 406 147 230 159 104 193 UAV
cruise missiles 31 22 50 151 134 192 73 77 38 cruise missiles
ships 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 ships
vehicles 302 327 547 357 298 279 341 196 271 vehicles
special equipment 21 22 27 23 9 18 19 30 66 special equipment

 

- new maximum in personnel

- generally high losses in heavy equipment compared to winter

- 2nd highest loss in artillery and 2nd time more artillery lost than tanks

 
Posted : April 4, 2023 08:56
(@max-beckhaus)
Posts: 56
Topic starter
 

Oh, and can anybody explain the new maximum of 30 "special equipment" in February, followed by 66!?! in March?

 
Posted : April 7, 2023 17:19
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